Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:50:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5764…3399 world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 274d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate32%12W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$5
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 56% −$7
politics 16% $0
other 10% $0
sports 8% $0
crypto 5% $0
finance 4% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 14 -1.5% -10.9% 29% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 14 -1.5% -10.9% 29% 0% -11.1%
all 38 -0.2% -9.7% 32% 3% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 3% -10.3%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

274d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses12 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage274d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 55¢ 56¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $27 $0 -0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $20 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $2 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $27 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $33 −$4 -11%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $64 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $34 $0 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $31 −$1 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $31 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $22 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 09 $34 −$2 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? Jun 09 $33 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Jan 31 $3 $0 +14%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 23 $23 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Oct 23 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? Oct 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $7 $0 +1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Oct 06 $22 $0 +2%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 01 $22 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 01 $22 $0 +0%
NATO downs another Russian drone by September 30? Oct 01 $22 $0 +1%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 30 $22 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Sep 30 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Ali Khamenei in 2025? Sep 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Sep 29 $21 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 29 $22 $0 -0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 28 $2 $0 -2%
Will Crystal Palace win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Sep 28 $22 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Sep 28 $22 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon George Santos in 2025? Sep 27 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 26 $7 $0 -2%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia? Sep 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 26 $8 $0 +0%
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025? Sep 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 25 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 55¢ $28 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $27 6h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $27 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $28 22h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $27 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $20 29h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $20 30h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $2 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $2 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 94¢ $10 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 94¢ $16 8d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $27 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $29 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $33 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $30 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 94¢ $30 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 9d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $34 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $34 11d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $34 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $30 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $31 11d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $31 13d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $15 13d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $16 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $22 13d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $22 13d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $34 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 58¢ $34 14d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 65¢ $32 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.00 · official $28.25 (match) · 101 history records