Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:15:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
57 0x5768…ccba other 8 markets active 3d ago coverage 128d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$104 (+42%) realized +$104 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$104
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -23.9% -31.1% 50% 50% -17.6%
≤30d 2 -23.9% -31.1% 50% 50% -17.6%
≤90d 4 -20.8% -28.3% 50% 50% -13.8%
all 6 +6.3% -3.8% 67% 67% +29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.8% 67% +29.8%
10% -13.0% 67% +17.4%
15% -21.4% 67% +6.0%
20% -29.1% 50% -4.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +44% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$7 · ×4.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.66 per $1 lost it wins $8.66
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage128d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $16 +$10 +64%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Venezuela win the 2026 World Baseball Classic? Mar 18 $36 +$27 +75%
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime sho Feb 09 $170 +$78 +46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 14 history records