Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:42:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5768…a9d8 crypto 404 markets active 3h ago coverage 730d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$69 (-1%) realized −$69 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR16%break-even
Win rate49%196W / 204L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$71
other 9% −$2
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
world 1% −$1
politics 0% +$1
sports 0% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +16%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -0.1% -9.6% 36% 7% -11.1%
≤30d 61 +0.0% -9.5% 31% 3% -10.0%
≤90d 148 -1.1% -10.5% 36% 5% -10.0%
all 400 -2.4% -11.7% 49% 16% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 16% -10.1%
10% -20.2% 10% -18.7%
15% -27.9% 4% -26.6%
20% -34.9% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.33 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

730d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses196 / 204
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)400 / 404
History coverage730d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 400 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 97¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 98¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 98¢ 98¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 88¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Solana reach $160 in June? Jun 17 $130 $0 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $2 $0 +1%
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $1 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 16 $2 $0 -1%
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $83 −$7 -8%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $2 $0 -21%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1 $0 +4%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? Jun 13 $127 $0 -0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 12 $1 $0 -3%
Will GameStop acquire eBay? Jun 12 $1 $0 -4%
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +22%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? Jun 11 $100 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 10 $1 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $7 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Jun 10 $100 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 10 $120 $0 -0%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Jun 06 $5 $0 -2%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 06 $4 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in June? Jun 06 $50 $0 +0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 05 $60 $0 -0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $10,000 by end of June? Jun 05 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 04 $2 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $137 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 04 $60 $0 -0%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 02 $1 $0 +3%
Will another contestant win The Bachelorette Season 22? Jun 02 $2 $0 -10%
Will Rhoda Magbitang win Top Chef Season 23? Jun 02 $1 $0 -0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 02 $1 $0 +2%
Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by June 30? Jun 02 $2 $0 -0%
Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $2 $0 -0%
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026? Jun 02 $2 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $500,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $221 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $217 $0 -0%
Another GTA VI trailer released by May 31? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 30 $50 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? May 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will Marta Kostyuk win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 28 $1 $0 -3%
Will Karolína Muchová win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 28 $2 $0 -1%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap May 28 $9 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in May? May 28 $90 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in May? May 28 $30 $0 -0%
Will Jessica Pegula win the 2026 Women’s French Open? May 27 $1 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $1 $0 +15%
Will Daniil Medvedev win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $1 $0 -1%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $2 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 26 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $160 in June? SELL No 100¢ $90 2h
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 98¢ $1 32h
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $2 32h
Will Saudi Arabia win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $1 32h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 99¢ $2 32h
Will Solana reach $160 in June? BUY No 100¢ $90 32h
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1 32h
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1 32h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $2 32h
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 77¢ $76 32h
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 66¢ $2 32h
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $68 4d
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $15 4d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $1 4d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $96 4d
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $2 5d
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $1 5d
Will Curaçao win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1 5d
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1 5d
Will Scotland win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 92¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 5d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $96 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 81¢ $1 5d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? SELL No 83¢ $1 5d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $1 5d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? SELL No 100¢ $99 6d
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $1 7d
Will GameStop acquire eBay? BUY No 85¢ $1 7d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 83¢ $1 7d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $100 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.00 · official $5.00 (match) · 1049 history records