Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:41:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5768…e453 politics 123 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,464 (-1%) realized −$1,464 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate10%12W / 111L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,041per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$9
14 days−$20
30 days+$53
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$108
politics 40% −$69
sports 8% −$1,331
culture 3% −$5
world 2% −$2
economics 1% −$1
crypto 0% +$2
tech 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 44 +3.3% -6.5% 11% 5% -9.4%
≤90d 119 -2.8% -12.0% 10% 6% -10.6%
all 123 -2.7% -12.0% 10% 6% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 6% -10.6%
10% -20.4% 6% -19.1%
15% -28.1% 6% -27.0%
20% -35.1% 5% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
42% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,561) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$17 · ×1.75 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.19 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,464
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses12 / 111
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)123 / 123
History coverage93d
Avg bet$1,041
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 123 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $312 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 23 $363 −$1 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $2,002 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $646 −$1 -0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec Jun 17 $679 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $787 −$1 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $616 −$1 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $821 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $802 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $3,228 −$3 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $508 −$1 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 14 $161 +$1 +1%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $708 −$1 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $727 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $691 −$1 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $890 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $953 −$1 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $710 −$1 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $1,166 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $832 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $819 −$1 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $69 −$69 -100%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $2,328 −$4 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $2,478 −$3 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $656 −$1 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $59 +$97 +165%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $1,381 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $417 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $84 +$73 +86%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $637 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $207 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 01 $305 +$1 +0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $944 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $340 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $336 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $656 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,611 −$3 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $560 −$1 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 26 $1,146 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $1,101 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $455 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $2,021 −$2 -0%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-23? May 24 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 23 $2,272 −$2 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 23 $69 −$69 -100%
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels May 22 $44 +$43 +97%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 21 $948 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $312 52m
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $312 1h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $362 3h
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $363 5h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $459 21h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $460 22h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $436 22h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $437 24h
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $323 5d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $323 5d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $678 5d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $679 6d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $600 6d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $601 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $786 6d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $787 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $615 6d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $616 7d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $820 7d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $821 7d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $801 7d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $802 8d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $644 8d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $645 8d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $507 8d
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $508 9d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $707 11d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $708 11d
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $726 11d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $161 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 351 history records