Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:37:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x576f…819a finance 51 markets active 3d ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy finance specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$3,492 (-23%) realized −$3,320 · open −$172
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -34% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -45% what you keep after slip
Net edge-45%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate17%8W / 38L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$302per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$754
14 days−$754
30 days−$5,578
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
finance 100% −$3,788
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-40.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -82.7% -84.3% 0% 0% -92.8%
≤30d 20 -73.2% -75.8% 0% 0% -65.2%
≤90d 46 -34.4% -40.7% 17% 13% -31.7%
all 46 -34.4% -40.7% 17% 13% -31.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -40.7% 13% -31.7%
10% -46.4% 11% -38.2%
15% -51.5% 7% -44.2%
20% -56.3% 4% -49.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 90% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -34% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -67% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
13.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$338 vs −$166 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$3,320
Unrealized−$172
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses8 / 38
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)46 / 51
History coverage71d
Avg bet$302
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Yes 7¢ 2¢ $213 $58 −$155 (-73%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Yes 9¢ 3¢ $11 $4 −$8 (-66%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Yes 20¢ 4¢ $7 $2 −$5 (-77%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-85%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 15 $202 −$202 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? Jun 12 $23 −$16 -72%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? Jun 12 $27 −$18 -67%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 12 $71 −$59 -83%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? Jun 12 $35 −$28 -81%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 12 $124 −$93 -75%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 12 $349 −$337 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 31 $138 −$138 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in May? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 31 $1,653 −$187 -11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May? May 31 $148 −$148 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 28 $77 −$76 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 25 $101 −$18 -18%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in May? May 25 $1,314 −$20 -2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 25 $102 −$8 -8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in May? May 24 $301 −$259 -86%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 24 $1,669 −$1,557 -93%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 24 $1,832 −$1,599 -87%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May? May 24 $612 −$536 -88%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 24 $294 −$277 -94%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 05 $665 −$48 -7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in May? May 01 $201 −$91 -45%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $20 in May? May 01 $20 −$3 -13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in May? May 01 $886 −$111 -12%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? Apr 29 $1,203 +$2,426 +202%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? Apr 24 $234 +$2 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April? Apr 24 $148 +$19 +13%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? Apr 24 $212 −$53 -25%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 24 $120 −$48 -40%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Apr 23 $499 +$131 +26%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April? Apr 22 $346 +$101 +29%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $70 in April? Apr 22 $239 −$23 -10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 22 $30 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in April? Apr 21 $58 +$24 +42%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April? Apr 21 $123 −$54 -44%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $40 in April? Apr 21 $1 −$1 -52%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? Apr 21 $4 +$2 +57%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $50 in April? Apr 21 $5 $0 -4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 20 $74 −$30 -40%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? Apr 20 $241 −$120 -50%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 20 $213 −$127 -60%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 20 $72 −$21 -29%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Apr 11 $11 +$1 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Apr 08 $89 −$9 -10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in April? Apr 07 $15 −$7 -49%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Apr 06 $10 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $12 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 3¢ $0 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 3¢ $2 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 3¢ $2 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 3¢ $2 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 3¢ $8 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL Yes 7¢ $26 2d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $14 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 6¢ $30 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 6¢ $1 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 6¢ $24 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 6¢ $25 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 6¢ $25 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 7¢ $26 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 7¢ $21 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 7¢ $5 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? BUY No 6¢ $32 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 3d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? BUY Yes 7¢ $219 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? SELL Yes 2¢ $12 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June? SELL Yes 0¢ $6 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL Yes 19¢ $26 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.32 · official $64.32 (match) · 765 history records