Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:39:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5776…67f2 other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 628d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-1%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate13%6W / 39L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$81per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 73% −$9
other 13% −$11
sports 5% $0
culture 4% $0
crypto 2% $0
economics 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -3.0% -12.2% 17% 17% -7.4%
≤30d 16 -1.2% -10.6% 12% 6% -9.1%
≤90d 34 -3.5% -12.7% 12% 3% -10.4%
all 45 -2.8% -12.1% 13% 2% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.1% 2% -10.0%
10% -20.5% 2% -18.6%
15% -28.2% 2% -26.5%
20% -35.2% 2% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.27 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

628d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses6 / 39
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage628d
Avg bet$81
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $31 $31 −$0 (-0%)
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $7 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $5 $0 -0%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $9 +$8 +83%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $6 $0 -0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $7 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $10 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 18 $44 $0 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 13 $42 $0 -0%
Will Panama win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $42 $0 -0%
Will Los Angeles FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 08 $51 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $55 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 01 $53 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 01 $52 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $55 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $55 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $111 $0 -0%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $52 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Apr 20 $53 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 19 $50 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $53 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by March 31, 2026? Apr 09 $2 $0 +1%
EdgeX FDV above $5B one day after launch? Apr 09 $5 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 05 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 13 $9 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $33 −$1 -2%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 14 $16 $0 -3%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 03 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 14 $23 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 11 $241 −$1 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $926 −$2 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 28 $500 −$4 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 24 $951 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $8 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $31 24h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $7 3d
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $7 3d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $5 4d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5 4d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $6 5d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $6 5d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 54¢ $9 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $7 6d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $7 6d
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 47¢ $7 7d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 9d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 9d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 10d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 10d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $10 13d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $10 13d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 15d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 21d
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 21d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 23d
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 23d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $44 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.55 · official $38.55 (match) · 264 history records