Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T12:37:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5776…6133 sports 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 68d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$181 (-21%) realized −$183 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%4W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$82now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$110
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$183
other 6% +$1
tech 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-38.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 8 -32.0% -38.4% 50% 50% -30.7%
all 8 -32.0% -38.4% 50% 50% -30.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.4% 50% -30.7%
10% -44.3% 38% -37.3%
15% -49.7% 25% -43.3%
20% -54.6% 0% -48.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 65% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$85 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.46 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$82
Realized−$183
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)8 / 10
History coverage68d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? No 94¢ 96¢ $54 $55 +$1 (+2%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 95¢ 97¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Thunder vs. Spurs May 28 $112 −$110 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $104 +$47 +46%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 17 $112 +$56 +50%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 12 $117 +$25 +21%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $110 +$30 +27%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 28 $63 −$62 -98%
Madrid Open: Belinda Bencic vs Petra Marcinko Apr 23 $47 −$46 -98%
Ducks vs. Predators Apr 16 $124 −$124 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $27 2h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? BUY No 94¢ $54 16d
Thunder vs. Spurs BUY Thunder 41¢ $112 26d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 68¢ $104 34d
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 66¢ $112 39d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Thunder 82¢ $117 43d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 78¢ $110 48d
Hawks vs. Knicks BUY Hawks 32¢ $63 56d
Madrid Open: Belinda Bencic vs Petra Marcinko BUY Petra Marcinko 22¢ $47 61d
Ducks vs. Predators BUY Predators 52¢ $124 68d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.10 · official $82.10 (match) · 14 history records