Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:46:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5777…f1a7 sports 236 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$720 (-10%) realized −$756 · open +$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%101W / 127L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day38.7pace
Fees−$81est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$432now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$161
7 days−$343
14 days−$494
30 days−$494
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$458
other 17% +$31
world 0% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-17.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 187 -7.9% -16.6% 44% 44% -14.5%
≤30d 228 -8.4% -17.1% 44% 44% -15.8%
≤90d 228 -8.4% -17.1% 44% 44% -15.8%
all 228 -8.4% -17.1% 44% 44% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover38.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.1% 44% -15.8%
10% ← realistic here -25.1% 42% -23.9%
15% -32.3% 37% -31.2%
20% -38.9% 35% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -23% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$26 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$432
Realized−$756
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses101 / 127
Est. fees paid−$81
Open positions8
Markets (closed)228 / 236
History coverage9d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day38.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 228 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Under 85¢ 100¢ $128 $149 +$22 (+17%)
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) Panama 76¢ 91¢ $95 $114 +$19 (+20%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Under 59¢ 68¢ $44 $51 +$7 (+16%)
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Under 45¢ 68¢ $27 $41 +$14 (+51%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Over 52¢ 42¢ $34 $27 −$7 (-20%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? No 32¢ 46¢ $16 $23 +$7 (+45%)
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 32¢ $28 $18 −$10 (-36%)
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Over 33¢ 12¢ $24 $8 −$15 (-65%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 109 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $38 +$27 +70%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $18 +$32 +178%
Spread: England (-4.5) Jun 23 $178 +$22 +12%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $31 +$24 +75%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $14 +$51 +354%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $85 +$90 +105%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $23 +$42 +186%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Amine Gouiri: 1+ goals Jun 23 $6 +$11 +178%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $85 +$35 +41%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 23 $60 +$55 +92%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $79 −$79 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $33 −$33 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $71 +$109 +154%
Sadio Mané: 1+ goals Jun 23 $48 +$17 +35%
Spread: Dallas Wings (-10.5) Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $26 +$24 +96%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 23 $34 +$31 +89%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 23 $11 +$14 +133%
Spread: France (-4.5) Jun 23 $117 +$33 +28%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $54 +$31 +56%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5 Jun 23 $32 −$32 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $31 −$31 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 22 $43 −$43 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 7.5 Jun 22 $29 −$29 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 Jun 22 $43 −$43 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins Jun 22 $40 −$40 -100%
Iraq leading at halftime? Jun 22 $0 $0 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $12 −$12 -100%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 22 $22 −$22 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 22 $29 −$29 -100%
France leading at halftime? Jun 22 $25 −$25 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $65 +$35 +54%
Argentina vs. Austria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $27 −$27 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 22 $9 +$9 +104%
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 22 $21 +$34 +156%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $14 −$14 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $18 −$18 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $33 −$33 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $76 −$76 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Panama vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 85¢ $128 50m
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 33¢ $24 52m
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $28 1h
Spread: Croatia (-2.5) BUY Panama 76¢ $95 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 32¢ $16 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 52¢ $34 1h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 59¢ $45 1h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 31¢ $4 3h
Marcus Rashford: 1+ goals BUY Yes 21¢ $0 3h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 31¢ $17 3h
Spread: England (-4.5) BUY Ghana 89¢ $178 3h
England leading at halftime? BUY No 35¢ $23 3h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 57¢ $29 3h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 57¢ $2 3h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 36¢ $18 3h
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 22¢ $14 3h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $38 3h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $1 3h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $2 3h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $18 3h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 BUY Under 48¢ $3 3h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $37 3h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $25 3h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 25¢ $25 20h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 71¢ $85 20h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $10 20h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $7 20h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $12 20h
Algeria leading at halftime? BUY No 52¢ $34 20h
Algeria leading at halftime? BUY No 52¢ $26 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $431.70 · official $431.70 (match) · 475 history records