Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T23:11:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5777…ccf6 world 31 markets active 2h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+1%) realized +$5 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate57%17W / 13L
Drawdown33%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$31now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% +$2
other 25% $0
politics 8% −$1
crypto 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.0% -8.7% 29% 0% -8.2%
≤30d 12 +0.9% -8.7% 42% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 12 +0.9% -8.7% 42% 0% -8.5%
all 30 -2.7% -11.9% 57% 0% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 0% -8.9%
10% -20.4% 0% -17.6%
15% -28.1% 0% -25.6%
20% -35.1% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 68% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.21 per $1 lost it wins $3.21
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$31
Realized+$5
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses17 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)30 / 31
History coverage452d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $33 $31 −$2 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $29 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 17 $56 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $52 +$1 +2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $12 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $52 +$3 +5%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $21 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $128 +$1 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $2 $0 +2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $13 $0 +1%
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July? Dec 14 $1 $0 +2%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will Virgil Alexandru Zidaru be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 14 $1 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 04 $1 $0 +2%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? May 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Marco Rubio be out as Secretary of State in Trump's first 100 day Apr 08 $13 $0 +0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 06 $1 $0 -5%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will egg prices be less than $5.00 in March? Apr 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 05 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days? Apr 04 $14 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before April? Apr 02 $14 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 400-424 times March 21-28? Mar 28 $13 $0 +1%
Will Dillon Danis win the match? Mar 27 $13 $0 -1%
Will Solana hit $190 in March? Mar 25 $14 $0 -1%
Will the LA Clippers win the Western Conference? Mar 23 $2 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 20¢ $33 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $29 20h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $29 21h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $56 25h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $56 27h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $4 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $49 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $49 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $9 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $11 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $19 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $24 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $7 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $49 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $5 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $52 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $21 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $21 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $36 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $2 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 44¢ $33 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $39 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $8 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $6 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $41 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $30.71 · official $31.54 (match) · 90 history records