Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T11:27:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5777…e548 crypto 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 193d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-0%) realized −$29 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate15%11W / 64L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$352per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$16
14 days−$16
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$814
politics 1% $0
world 0% −$6
other 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-33.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -4.1% -13.2% 0% 0% -12.8%
≤30d 3 -4.1% -13.2% 0% 0% -12.8%
≤90d 3 -4.1% -13.2% 0% 0% -12.8%
all 75 -26.4% -33.4% 15% 1% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.4% 1% -12.5%
10% -39.7% 1% -20.8%
15% -45.6% 1% -28.5%
20% -50.9% 1% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% too few recent
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$700) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -39% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$29 · ×0.03 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses11 / 64
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)75 / 75
History coverage193d
Avg bet$352
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 75 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $124 −$9 -7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $130 −$6 -5%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $180 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 27 Jan 27 $1 $0 -33%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 20, 5PM ET Jan 21 $720 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on January 20? Jan 20 $125 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 20, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jan 20 $595 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on January 19? Jan 20 $200 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 19, 10AM ET Jan 20 $520 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - January 19, 5AM ET Jan 19 $520 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 17? Jan 19 $333 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jan 19 $386 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - January 17, 8AM ET Jan 17 $386 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 16? Jan 17 $250 +$1 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jan 17 $469 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - January 16, 6AM ET Jan 16 $469 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 15, 3AM ET Jan 16 $218 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 15? Jan 16 $500 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 14? Jan 15 $125 +$1 +0%
Solana Up or Down - January 14, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jan 15 $593 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 7AM ET Jan 14 $593 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 13? Jan 14 $333 +$1 +0%
XRP Up or Down - January 13, 4AM ET Jan 14 $384 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on January 12? Jan 13 $150 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jan 13 $566 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - January 12, 5AM ET Jan 12 $716 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 5-11? Jan 12 $130 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 10, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jan 12 $586 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 9, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jan 10 $716 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 9? Jan 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 8, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jan 09 $700 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on January 8? Jan 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 7, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jan 08 $700 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on January 7? Jan 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 6, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jan 07 $700 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 6? Jan 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 5, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jan 06 $700 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 5? Jan 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jan 05 $700 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,700 December 29-January 4? Jan 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 2, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jan 03 $700 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 2? Jan 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 1, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jan 02 $700 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on January 1? Jan 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - December 31, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jan 01 $700 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 31? Dec 31 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - December 30, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Dec 31 $700 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,200 and $3,300 on December 30 Dec 30 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 29, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Dec 30 $700 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,700 and $2,800 on December 29 Dec 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 56¢ $48 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 57¢ $11 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 58¢ $35 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 58¢ $6 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 61¢ $2 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 61¢ $7 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 62¢ $106 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 62¢ $4 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 62¢ $8 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? SELL Yes 61¢ $5 1h
Will Gustavo Petro be the next leader out before 2027? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 62¢ $124 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 65¢ $130 3d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $180 3d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $180 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 27 SELL Yes 0¢ $1 145d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $92,000 and $94,000 on January 27 BUY Yes 0¢ $1 146d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on January 20? BUY No 100¢ $125 152d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,000 on January 19? BUY Yes 100¢ $200 154d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $333 155d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $250 157d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $500 158d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on January 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $125 159d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,900 on January 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $333 160d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on January 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 160d
Will Bitcoin dip to $86,000 January 5-11? BUY No 100¢ $130 162d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on January 9? BUY No 0¢ $1 164d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.90 on January 8? BUY No 0¢ $1 165d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on January 7? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 166d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 6? BUY No 1¢ $1 167d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 140 history records