Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:47:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
57 0x5779…54ad crypto 1219 markets active 2h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 102d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,077 (+1%) realized +$3,152 · open −$75
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate66%799W / 418L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$205per market
Trades / day31.7pace
Fees−$445est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$925now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,127
7 days+$3,045
14 days+$3,045
30 days−$136
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 82% +$685
sports 18% +$431
other 0% +$143
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +7.9% -2.4% 70% 61% +12.5%
≤30d 173 -10.0% -18.6% 56% 49% -9.4%
≤90d 377 -11.4% -19.8% 54% 49% -13.4%
all 1217 -4.0% -13.1% 66% 55% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.1% 55% -8.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.5% 40% -17.5%
15% -29.0% 27% -25.4%
20% -36.0% 18% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$133 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$925
Realized+$3,152
Unrealized−$75
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses799 / 418
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$445
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1217 / 1219
History coverage102d ⚠
Avg bet$205
Trades / day31.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays Houston Astros 43¢ 62¢ $500 $715 +$215 (+43%)
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Houston Astros 80¢ 34¢ $500 $209 −$291 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 324 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $304 −$7 -2%
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage Jun 23 $304 −$300 -99%
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro Jun 23 $504 +$161 +32%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B Jun 23 $1,015 +$1,023 +101%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A Jun 23 $304 +$257 +85%
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres Jun 23 $1,511 +$145 +10%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner Jun 23 $303 −$300 -99%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 23 $302 −$300 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 23 $202 +$92 +46%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 23 $302 +$93 +31%
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 23 $402 −$400 -99%
Valorant: FUSION vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Sea Jun 23 $201 +$58 +29%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $905 +$243 +27%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: ENERGYULTRA vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group Jun 22 $174 +$137 +79%
Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Re Jun 22 $601 +$34 +6%
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regula Jun 22 $507 +$495 +97%
Counter-Strike: Lilmix vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group A Jun 22 $304 +$199 +66%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs Pixel Lumina (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Jun 22 $403 +$108 +27%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WRAITH PCIFIC (BO3) - TESFED League Pl Jun 22 $304 +$237 +78%
Dota 2: Execration vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 22 $1,704 +$352 +21%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $1,758 +$918 +52%
LoL: ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix vs UCAM Esports Club (BO5) - LES Playoffs Jun 04 $1,092 −$1,085 -99%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs NRG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $707 +$385 +54%
Makarska: Katarzyna Kawa vs Maya Joint Jun 04 $304 +$196 +65%
Makarska: Lola Radivojevic vs Mia Ristic Jun 04 $3,020 −$3,000 -99%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Carstensz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast As Jun 04 $603 −$600 -100%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $304 −$13 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 04 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 04 $100 +$5 +5%
Valorant: FlyQuest RED vs SwimTrek Blue (BO3) - VCT Game Changers Nort Jun 04 $504 +$190 +38%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $202 −$200 -99%
LoL: Deer Gaming vs The Ruddy Sack (BO5) - NLC Playoffs Jun 03 $202 −$193 -96%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Carstensz (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Cl Jun 03 $3,617 +$668 +18%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - Esports World Cup Southeast Asia Jun 03 $2,523 +$1,106 +44%
Valorant: QoR vs FlyQuest (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Sta Jun 03 $1,914 +$599 +31%
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs M80 (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage Jun 03 $1 $0 +5%
Valorant: SaD Esports vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage Jun 02 $1,284 −$1,174 -91%
LoL: Crusaders vs Bubliki (BO5) - LPLOL Playoffs Jun 02 $985 +$193 +20%
LoL: The Bandits vs mCon esports (BO5) - Road Of Legends Playoffs Jun 02 $1,158 −$167 -14%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 02 $1,170 −$327 -28%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $101 +$74 +73%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 01 $95 −$94 -99%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major St Jun 01 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs largadosypelados (BO3) - Circuit X Base Reci May 31 $407 +$647 +159%
Counter-Strike: BESTIA vs largadosypelados - Map 2 Winner May 31 $202 −$200 -99%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Pipsqueak+4 (BO3) - Esports World Cup Western E May 31 $501 +$26 +5%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs FOKUS (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe S May 31 $101 +$60 +60%
Counter-Strike: CarritoSpain vs The Last Resort (BO3) - Exort Series M May 31 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) BUY Houston Astros 80¢ $503 1h
Houston Astros vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Houston Astros 43¢ $509 2h
Valorant: Team Liquid Academy vs Misa Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage BUY Team Liquid Academy 60¢ $304 4h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY Walczaki 50¢ $304 4h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro SELL Mandatory 100¢ $665 4h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B SELL FOKUS 100¢ $2,039 4h
Valorant: Mandatory vs AlQadsiah Esports (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Stage 3 Gro BUY Mandatory 75¢ $504 7h
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs OG (BO3) - DraculaN Group B BUY FOKUS 49¢ $1,015 17h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs 9INE (BO3) - DraculaN Group A BUY Sashi Esport 53¢ $304 17h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres SELL San Diego Padres 99¢ $1,632 17h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 95¢ $300 18h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres SELL Atlanta Braves $24 18h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back - Game 2 Winner BUY REKONIX 65¢ $303 18h
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia BUY REKONIX 79¢ $302 18h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 75¢ $1,007 18h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Boston Red Sox 79¢ $201 20h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Baltimore Orioles 68¢ $202 20h
Valorant: FUSION vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Sea SELL LAZER 100¢ $259 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,148 20h
Boston Red Sox vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Boston Red Sox 82¢ $201 20h
Atlanta Braves vs. San Diego Padres BUY Atlanta Braves 49¢ $203 20h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 76¢ $302 20h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $501 21h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 21h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $404 21h
Valorant: FUSION vs LAZER (BO3) - VCL Latin America North: Regular Sea BUY LAZER 77¢ $201 22h
Counter-Strike: ENERGYULTRA vs ReThink (BO3) - Svenska CS-Ligan Group SELL ReThink 100¢ $310 23h
Valorant: OXEN vs Leviatán Academy (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Re SELL Leviatán Academy 100¢ $635 23h
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs ShindeN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regula SELL ShindeN 100¢ $1,002 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $924.55 · official $854.79 · 3461 history records