Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:08:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
57 0x577e…d876 other 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$158 (+7%) realized +$98 · open +$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%11W / 20L
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit47%portable
Net worth$227now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$167
sports 38% +$218
politics 1% −$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 31 +3.1% -6.7% 35% 35% +5.5%
≤30d 31 +3.1% -6.7% 35% 35% +5.5%
≤90d 31 +3.1% -6.7% 35% 35% +5.5%
all 31 +3.1% -6.7% 35% 35% +5.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 35% +5.5%
10% -15.7% 32% -4.6%
15% -23.8% 32% -13.8%
20% -31.3% 29% -22.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +17% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$96 vs −$38 · ×2.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$227
Realized+$98
Unrealized+$60
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses11 / 20
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions4
Markets (closed)31 / 36
History coverage6d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit47%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 66¢ $101 $157 +$56 (+56%)
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 48¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $12 $17 +$5 (+46%)
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $51 +$157 +308%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 22 $114 −$31 -28%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $203 +$97 +48%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $30 +$70 +233%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $136 −$136 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 21 $20 +$40 +194%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $105 +$95 +90%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $33 +$6 +20%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $23 −$23 -100%
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4 −$4 -100%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $120 +$130 +108%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $294 −$189 -64%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $102 −$4 -4%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $32 −$32 -100%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 19 $33 −$32 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $19 −$15 -80%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $45 +$55 +122%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 19 $208 +$170 +82%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $20 −$17 -85%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $64 +$163 +256%
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 +$75 +431%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $18 −$18 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 47m
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 47m
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 57m
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 42¢ $83 1h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $50 2h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3h
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $114 4h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $101 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $203 8h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-2.5) BUY 24¢ $51 8h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 39¢ $18 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 39¢ $12 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 39¢ $5 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 39¢ $3 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 30¢ $30 27h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 42¢ $84 29h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $136 30h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 8¢ $4 31h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 71¢ $35 31h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 32¢ $33 33h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $105 33h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 23¢ $23 33h
Halle Open: Taylor Fritz vs Frances Tiafoe BUY Taylor Fritz 6¢ $10 34h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Leviatán Esports 34¢ $20 42h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 3¢ $13 44h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $227.44 · official $227.44 (match) · 95 history records