Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:16:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5782…fcaa other 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 301d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate25%14W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$4
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$5
other 29% −$12
politics 12% $0
economics 5% $0
sports 3% $0
tech 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 16 -4.8% -13.8% 25% 0% -10.3%
≤90d 16 -4.8% -13.8% 25% 0% -10.3%
all 57 -7.2% -16.1% 25% 2% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 2% -11.0%
10% -24.1% 0% -19.5%
15% -31.4% 0% -27.3%
20% -38.2% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -14% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

301d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses14 / 43
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage301d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $24 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $37 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $42 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $68 +$1 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 14 $6 $0 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $106 +$7 +6%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $8 −$3 -40%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Jun 11 $13 −$2 -12%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $118 −$6 -5%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $8 $0 -4%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $49 $0 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 08 $54 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $7 $0 -6%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $9 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $5 $0 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $1 $0 -17%
Will Trump meet with iShowSpeed in 2025? Jan 31 $6 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 25 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Gabriela Firea be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $4 +$1 +15%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 17 $14 $0 -2%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 13 $3 $0 -14%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Oct 11 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Oct 11 $10 $0 -3%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 11 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Oct 06 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Yoshimasa Hayashi be the next Prime Minister of Japan? Oct 02 $18 $0 -0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 01 $7 $0 -1%
Will Ali Khamenei be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Oct 01 $2 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Oct 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 30 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Sep 30 $50 $0 +1%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 29 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 29 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $17 +$1 +4%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 28 $1 $0 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $103K in September? Sep 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 27 $1 $0 +0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 27 $9 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 15 $17 $0 +0%
Was Kanye hacked? Aug 28 $2 $0 -0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by August 31? Aug 27 $2 $0 -17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $28 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $51 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $5 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 70¢ $56 12h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $2 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $24 7d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 8d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $37 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $3 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $3 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 63¢ $35 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $42 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $13 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $4 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $8 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 9d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $4 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $52 9d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $56 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $48 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $8 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 76¢ $53 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 3¢ $0 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 3¢ $5 10d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 5¢ $8 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.52 · official $27.52 (match) · 207 history records