Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:49:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5782…8ce5 sports 478 markets active 1h ago coverage 91d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$8,124 (-9%) realized −$7,960 · open −$164
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate52%243W / 227L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day8.7pace
Fees−$729est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$14,144now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$120
30 days−$179
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 63% −$4,463
other 27% −$571
crypto 5% −$456
finance 2% −$866
world 1% −$176
politics 1% −$233
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-15.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -64.1% -67.5% 20% 20% -90.9%
≤90d 468 -7.3% -16.2% 51% 51% -17.9%
all 470 -7.0% -15.9% 52% 51% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.9% 51% -17.6%
10% -23.9% 47% -25.4%
15% -31.3% 39% -32.7%
20% -38.0% 33% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -12% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$137 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

91d coverage
Net worth$14,144
Realized−$7,960
Unrealized−$164
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses243 / 227
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$729
Open positions6
Markets (closed)470 / 478
History coverage91d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day8.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 470 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5,350 $4,499 −$850 (-16%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 23¢ $3,000 $4,099 +$1,099 (+37%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $3,632 $3,228 −$404 (-11%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Over 74¢ 74¢ $1,480 $1,470 −$10 (-1%)
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? No 74¢ 74¢ $518 $522 +$4 (+1%)
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Under 77¢ 76¢ $329 $326 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 31 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $122 −$120 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $12 −$12 -99%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $22 −$22 -99%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 07 $11 +$9 +79%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 31 $34 −$34 -99%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 14 $183 −$180 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 05 $349 −$343 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 211.5 May 05 $194 +$154 +79%
Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 May 04 $127 −$126 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 May 04 $339 −$335 -99%
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) May 04 $102 +$98 +97%
Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5 May 04 $335 +$120 +36%
Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 May 03 $73 −$72 -98%
Flyers vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 May 03 $326 +$186 +57%
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5) May 02 $369 −$364 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 02 $224 +$75 +34%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $204 +$323 +158%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $302 −$300 -99%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $135 −$133 -98%
Will Melbourne Victory FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $115 +$85 +73%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 02 $203 +$142 +70%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 02 $279 −$276 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 02 $206 −$197 -96%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-02? May 02 $487 −$480 -98%
Sabres vs. Bruins May 02 $134 +$116 +86%
Sabres vs. Bruins: O/U 4.5 May 02 $227 +$73 +32%
Lightning vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5 May 02 $247 +$153 +62%
Pistons vs. Magic: O/U 211.5 May 02 $279 +$231 +83%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs GamerLegion (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs May 01 $145 −$143 -99%
Lightning vs. Canadiens May 01 $199 −$196 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Utah May 01 $102 −$100 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. San Diego Padres May 01 $153 −$151 -99%
Spread: Pistons (-4.5) May 01 $109 −$108 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 01 $194 −$192 -99%
Spread: Cavaliers (-3.5) May 01 $142 −$140 -99%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 01 $123 −$122 -99%
Lakers vs. Rockets: O/U 205.5 May 01 $199 −$196 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 220.5 May 01 $328 −$324 -99%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 01 $51 +$92 +180%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 01 $101 +$63 +62%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner May 01 $105 +$95 +90%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 01 $101 +$44 +44%
Oilers vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5 May 01 $143 +$57 +40%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner May 01 $101 −$93 -92%
LoL: Top Esports vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend May 01 $102 −$100 -98%
Stars vs. Wild: O/U 5.5 May 01 $107 +$93 +86%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 01 $115 +$85 +73%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 01 $95 +$145 +152%
Celtics vs. 76ers: O/U 212.5 May 01 $146 +$154 +105%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5 May 01 $215 +$185 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $331 1h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY No 74¢ $522 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $1,492 1h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 5¢ $2,345 1h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 9.5 Total Corners AND South Africa vs. Ca BUY 19¢ $6 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score AND Switzerland vs. Canada BUY 13¢ $12 4d
Games Total: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $122 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $9 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $100 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $6 10d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 10d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 56¢ $12 14d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner BUY G2 Esports 67¢ $22 20d
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 55¢ $11 21d
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX (BO5) - LEC Playoffs BUY Team Vitality 68¢ $34 27d
Canadiens vs. Sabres BUY Sabres 52¢ $183 44d
Cavaliers vs. Pistons BUY Cavaliers 42¢ $349 53d
76ers vs. Knicks: O/U 211.5 BUY Over 55¢ $194 54d
Ducks vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 63¢ $127 54d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 58¢ $178 54d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 BUY Over 57¢ $161 54d
Wild vs. Avalanche: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 45¢ $73 55d
Canadiens vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 73¢ $335 55d
Spread: Pistons (-8.5) BUY Pistons 50¢ $102 55d
Flyers vs. Hurricanes: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 63¢ $326 56d
Spread: Cavaliers (-8.5) BUY Raptors 52¢ $369 56d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $300 56d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FaZe (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Playoffs BUY Natus Vincere 74¢ $224 56d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-02? BUY No 38¢ $204 56d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-02? BUY Yes 73¢ $302 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14,143.83 · official $14,124.06 (match) · 1214 history records