Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T13:19:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5783…e195 crypto 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6 (-6%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -38% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$16per market
Trades / day9.0pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 75% −$56
other 25% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-44.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -38.1% -44.0% 33% 17% -61.3%
≤30d 6 -38.1% -44.0% 33% 17% -61.3%
≤90d 6 -38.1% -44.0% 33% 17% -61.3%
all 6 -38.1% -44.0% 33% 17% -61.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.0% 17% -61.3%
10% -49.3% 17% -65.0%
15% -54.2% 17% -68.4%
20% -58.7% 17% -71.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -57% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -38% · $-wt -57% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$16 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.17 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage1d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day9.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 21 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -96%
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 21 $24 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$9 +163%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $26 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $26 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 20¢ $21 3h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 10 history records