Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:24:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
57 0x5786…bb03 other 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 238d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2,580 (+10%) realized +$2,581 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +54% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate84%37W / 7L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$595per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$59est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$104now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$106
14 days−$213
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 35% +$2,677
world 28% +$104
economics 17% −$859
sports 8% +$448
politics 5% +$93
crypto 5% +$53
finance 1% +$118
tech 0% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+39.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 4 +23.1% +11.4% 50% 50% +3.6%
≤90d 18 +24.7% +12.8% 72% 50% +7.8%
all 44 +54.3% +39.6% 84% 30% -0.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +39.6% 30% -0.8%
10% +26.2% 27% -10.3%
15% +14.1% 23% -18.9%
20% +2.9% 20% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
65% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +54% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,280) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +88% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$231 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.59 per $1 lost it wins $2.59
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

238d coverage
Net worth$104
Realized+$2,581
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses37 / 7
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$59
Open positions1
Markets (closed)44 / 45
History coverage238d
Avg bet$595
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? No 38¢ 38¢ $106 $104 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $108 −$106 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 08 $107 −$107 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $82 +$155 +188%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 29 $113 +$118 +104%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $115 +$227 +197%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 13 $192 +$8 +4%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 08 $58 −$57 -99%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $123 +$158 +129%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $852 +$545 +64%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $164 −$164 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? May 01 $108 +$108 +100%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Tamara Korpatsch Apr 20 $1,424 +$44 +3%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 20 $12 +$1 +6%
Rangers vs. Lightning Apr 20 $128 +$139 +108%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 10 $122 −$120 -98%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Apr 06 $11 +$3 +24%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Apr 06 $13 +$2 +14%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Apr 06 $1,470 +$45 +3%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 16 $1,473 +$32 +2%
Will there be no new Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Mar 09 $1,435 +$49 +3%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $65 by end of February? Mar 05 $1,382 +$53 +4%
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 23 $1,326 +$55 +4%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 13 $1,283 +$44 +3%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? Jan 29 $1,280 +$3 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 20 $1,002 −$1,002 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026? Jan 14 $2,279 +$3 +0%
Cilia Flores released from custody by January 9, 2026? Jan 13 $1,362 +$33 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 Jan 13 $98 +$1,893 +1940%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 05 $1,179 +$53 +4%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Dec 21 $59 −$59 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 18 $285 +$2 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 18 $1,096 +$83 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November? Dec 03 $1,331 +$51 +4%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? Nov 18 $1,264 +$67 +5%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 08 $1,181 +$83 +7%
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31? Nov 02 $10 $0 +1%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? Nov 02 $10 $0 +2%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Nov 02 $110 +$87 +79%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31? Nov 02 $948 +$15 +2%
Ravens vs. Dolphins Oct 31 $15 +$4 +25%
Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30? Oct 31 $39 +$1 +4%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5) Oct 31 $36 +$15 +43%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $32 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $952 +$14 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY No 38¢ $108 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 32¢ $108 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? BUY No 40¢ $107 13d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 34¢ $82 16d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs 33¢ $115 35d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? BUY No 49¢ $5 38d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? BUY No 49¢ $108 38d
Will Trump visit China by June 30? BUY Yes 96¢ $192 44d
Knicks vs. 76ers BUY 76ers 52¢ $58 44d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? BUY Yes 61¢ $852 47d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $164 48d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY No 43¢ $123 51d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Tamara Korpatsch SELL Tamara Korpatsch 42¢ $441 62d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Tamara Korpatsch SELL Tamara Korpatsch 42¢ $126 62d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Tamara Korpatsch SELL Tamara Korpatsch 42¢ $20 62d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Tamara Korpatsch SELL Tamara Korpatsch 42¢ $126 62d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Tamara Korpatsch SELL Tamara Korpatsch 42¢ $1 62d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Tamara Korpatsch SELL Tamara Korpatsch 42¢ $1 62d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Tamara Korpatsch SELL Tamara Korpatsch 42¢ $85 62d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Tamara Korpatsch SELL Tamara Korpatsch 43¢ $10 62d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Tamara Korpatsch SELL Tamara Korpatsch 43¢ $10 62d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Tamara Korpatsch SELL Tamara Korpatsch 43¢ $3 62d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Tamara Korpatsch SELL Tamara Korpatsch 43¢ $3 62d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Tamara Korpatsch SELL Tamara Korpatsch 43¢ $241 62d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Tamara Korpatsch SELL Tamara Korpatsch 43¢ $113 62d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Tamara Korpatsch SELL Tamara Korpatsch 42¢ $3 62d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Tamara Korpatsch SELL Tamara Korpatsch 42¢ $3 62d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Tamara Korpatsch SELL Tamara Korpatsch 42¢ $1 62d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Tamara Korpatsch SELL Tamara Korpatsch 42¢ $30 62d
Madrid Open, Qualification: Sara Sorribes Tormo vs Tamara Korpatsch SELL Tamara Korpatsch 42¢ $92 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $104.49 · official $104.49 (match) · 229 history records