Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:18:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
57 0x5788…37c9 crypto 67 markets active 2h ago coverage 260d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$433 (+1%) realized +$434 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate94%62W / 4L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$524per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1,073now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$42
14 days+$57
30 days+$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 57% +$156
economics 15% +$85
other 13% +$108
finance 12% +$20
politics 3% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +2.1% -7.7% 100% 0% -6.9%
≤30d 5 +1.1% -8.5% 80% 0% -8.3%
≤90d 17 +0.7% -8.9% 82% 0% -8.9%
all 66 +3.1% -6.7% 94% 8% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 8% -8.4%
10% -15.6% 6% -17.2%
15% -23.8% 0% -25.2%
20% -31.3% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$946) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$3 · ×2.36 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×36.6 per $1 lost it wins $36.6
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

260d coverage
Net worth$1,073
Realized+$434
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses62 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)66 / 67
History coverage260d
Avg bet$524
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 66 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 98¢ $1,074 $1,073 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? Jun 23 $1,036 +$41 +4%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $383 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 15 $1,341 +$15 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? Jun 04 $185 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 27 $1,339 +$2 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 24 $1,335 +$3 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 19 $458 +$11 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 19 $1,101 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $105,000 in April? May 06 $1,100 +$1 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 26 $317 +$5 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 25 $763 +$16 +2%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 24 $731 −$11 -2%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? Apr 04 $985 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? Mar 31 $316 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Mar 29 $983 +$2 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,400 by end of March? Mar 27 $495 +$6 +1%
Will Phantom launch a token by March 31, 2026? Mar 27 $792 +$6 +1%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $65 on the final trading day of February Feb 27 $801 +$1 +0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of February? Feb 26 $220 +$3 +2%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,000 by end of February? Feb 25 $234 +$2 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $25 by end of February? Feb 25 $339 +$3 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in January? Jan 28 $610 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 27 $178 $0 +0%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 24 $142 +$36 +25%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Jan 03 $11 +$3 +30%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jan 02 $803 +$38 +5%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 30 $146 +$2 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 30 $105 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 23 $254 +$7 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 23 $492 +$49 +10%
SBF released from custody in 2025? Dec 18 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Dec 18 $118 +$28 +24%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Dec 11 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Dec 11 $10 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $7,000 by December 31? Dec 06 $8 +$1 +12%
Will Ethereum hit $8,000 by December 31? Dec 06 $9 +$1 +7%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Dec 06 $10 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 01 $727 +$19 +3%
Monad market cap (FDV) >$5B one day after launch? Nov 26 $113 +$5 +4%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Nov 24 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Nov 24 $100 +$3 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Nov 15 $718 +$9 +1%
Will CZ return to Binance by December 31? Nov 07 $100 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be above $190 on November 3? Nov 03 $717 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $124,000 on November 3? Nov 03 $714 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Oct 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Oct 31 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Oct 31 $1,908 +$6 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 30 $19 +$1 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 29 $948 +$34 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 98¢ $1,074 1h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? SELL No 100¢ $799 11h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? SELL No 100¢ $16 11h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? SELL No 100¢ $32 11h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? SELL No 100¢ $25 11h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? SELL No 100¢ $26 11h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? SELL No 100¢ $5 11h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? SELL No 100¢ $14 11h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? SELL No 100¢ $41 11h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? SELL No 100¢ $20 11h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? SELL No 100¢ $50 11h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? SELL No 100¢ $50 11h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY No 96¢ $749 12h
Exact Score: Norway 3 - 3 Senegal? BUY No 96¢ $287 12h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $691 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 100¢ $343 5d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 96¢ $287 6d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 96¢ $389 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $681 7d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 100¢ $343 7d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $327 9d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $13 9d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $111 19d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $41 19d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $185 19d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $41 20d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $185 20d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $113 23d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $113 24d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $1,341 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,073.11 · official $1,073.11 (match) · 202 history records