Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:19:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x578a…f2f1 crypto 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$207 (+19%) realized +$203 · open +$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -56% what you keep after slip
Net edge-56%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%2W / 9L
Drawdown99%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day24.0pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$395now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$211
crypto 46% −$204
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-48.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -43.3% -48.7% 18% 18% -9.0%
≤30d 11 -43.3% -48.7% 18% 18% -9.0%
≤90d 11 -43.3% -48.7% 18% 18% -9.0%
all 11 -43.3% -48.7% 18% 18% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -48.7% 18% -9.0%
10% ← realistic here -53.6% 18% -17.7%
15% -58.1% 18% -25.6%
20% -62.2% 18% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$27 · ×4.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$395
Realized+$203
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses2 / 9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage2d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day24.0
Drawdown99%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 59¢ 60¢ $341 $344 +$3 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 53¢ 55¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $52 −$28 -54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 24 $102 −$102 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 24 $77 −$26 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $52 −$22 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 24 $103 −$17 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 24 $58 +$36 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $31 −$5 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 24 $11 −$11 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 24 $102 +$207 +203%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $27 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 77¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 62¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Up 89¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Down 30¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Down 78¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $394.93 · official $394.93 (match) · 42 history records