Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:16:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
57 0x578e…c3c0 other 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,813 (-14%) realized −$4,502 · open +$689
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%20W / 26L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$550per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$105est.
Kalshi-fit29%portable
Net worth$1,889now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$830
7 days+$1,518
14 days+$1,518
30 days+$1,518
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$1,118
sports 26% −$2,430
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +88.1% +70.2% 78% 78% +56.4%
≤30d 9 +88.1% +70.2% 78% 78% +56.4%
≤90d 46 +0.0% -9.5% 43% 43% -24.9%
all 46 +0.0% -9.5% 43% 43% -24.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 43% -24.9%
10% -18.2% 43% -32.1%
15% -26.1% 39% -38.6%
20% -33.3% 30% -44.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$527) neutral
Persistence
early -10% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$422 vs −$487 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$1,889
Realized−$4,502
Unrealized+$689
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses20 / 26
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$105
Open positions2
Markets (closed)46 / 48
History coverage57d
Avg bet$550
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit29%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 51¢ 100¢ $500 $980 +$480 (+96%)
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Over 77¢ 100¢ $700 $909 +$209 (+30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $102 +$218 +215%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $203 +$148 +73%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $506 +$288 +57%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $102 +$375 +366%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $306 +$484 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $404 +$176 +44%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $162 +$129 +79%
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Truist Championship? May 10 $408 −$399 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $142 +$267 +188%
Will Alex Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Truist Championship? May 09 $512 −$500 -98%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) May 09 $139 +$507 +365%
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Truist Championship? May 09 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Truist Championship? May 09 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $41 −$9 -21%
Fulham FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 1.5 May 09 $504 −$500 -99%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $510 −$500 -98%
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 May 09 $510 −$500 -98%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) May 09 $499 −$489 -98%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? May 09 $507 −$500 -99%
Exact Score: Liverpool FC 2 - 1 Chelsea FC? May 09 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $200 −$195 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $5 −$5 -97%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 4.5 May 06 $1,568 −$1,541 -98%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 May 05 $512 −$505 -99%
Will Max Verstappen win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 03 $133 −$130 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $1,203 −$1,033 -86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 28 $409 −$400 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $512 −$500 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 28 $1,017 +$372 +37%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 2.5 Apr 28 $1,312 +$436 +33%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $1,003 +$327 +33%
Will Beşiktaş JK win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $1,000 −$983 -98%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-04-27? Apr 27 $2,000 −$1,974 -99%
Will Olympique de Marseille win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $2,616 +$932 +36%
Will Juventus FC win on 2026-04-26? Apr 26 $700 −$214 -31%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $1,596 +$1,735 +109%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $1,000 −$981 -98%
Will Villarreal CF win on 2026-04-23? Apr 23 $527 +$244 +46%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-23? Apr 23 $500 +$719 +144%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 RBC Heritage? Apr 19 $100 +$67 +67%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 RBC Heritage? Apr 19 $200 −$196 -98%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $400 +$203 +51%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $400 +$607 +152%
Will Everton FC win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $100 +$201 +201%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 77¢ $705 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $507 2h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) BUY Germany 57¢ $203 10h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY No 31¢ $102 14h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $506 27h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 12.5 Total Corners BUY Over 21¢ $102 33h
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Switzerland 36¢ $204 33h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $306 3d
Spread: Mexico (-2.5) BUY Mexico 45¢ $102 3d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 55¢ $162 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $404 3d
Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Truist Championship? BUY Yes 23¢ $408 35d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? SELL Yes 100¢ $410 35d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? BUY Yes 34¢ $142 35d
Will Alex Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Truist Championship? BUY Yes 20¢ $512 36d
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) SELL Manchester City FC 100¢ $647 36d
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Truist Championship? BUY Yes 22¢ $205 36d
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Truist Championship? BUY Yes 6¢ $103 36d
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) BUY Manchester City FC 27¢ $102 36d
Spread: Manchester City FC (-2.5) BUY Manchester City FC 13¢ $37 36d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-09? SELL Yes 10¢ $32 36d
Will Brentford FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 12¢ $41 36d
Fulham FC vs. AFC Bournemouth: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $504 36d
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 33¢ $510 36d
Sunderland AFC vs. Manchester United FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 34¢ $510 36d
Spread: Liverpool FC (-1.5) BUY Liverpool FC 29¢ $499 36d
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-09? BUY Yes 51¢ $507 36d
Exact Score: Liverpool FC 2 - 1 Chelsea FC? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 36d
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-07? BUY Yes 21¢ $200 38d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,888.54 · official $1,888.54 (match) · 77 history records