Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:37:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

57
0x578e…ae91
weather · 83 markets active 3h ago
0.0score
−$109 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$96 · open −$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$58
Realized−$96
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses42 / 37
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)79 / 83
Avg bet$17
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%
Chart Positions 4 History 79 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$24
14 days−$34
30 days−$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? No 72¢ 71¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Yes 31¢ 36¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $36 +$4 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 +$15 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 12 $16 +$30 +191%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 −$9 -55%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $16 −$15 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $15 +$15 +95%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $10 −$7 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $16 +$36 +235%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 10 $15 −$15 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$3 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 9? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 8? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1 $0 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 36°C or higher on June 5? Jun 08 $11 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on June 5? Jun 08 $41 −$27 -65%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on June 5? Jun 05 $14 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 4? Jun 04 $23 +$10 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 3? Jun 04 $26 −$7 -28%
Will Charles Leclerc win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 03 $3 $0 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on June 2? Jun 02 $7 +$6 +91%
Will LeBron James play for the Los Angeles Lakers in 2026-27? Jun 02 $15 −$2 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on May 29? Jun 02 $36 −$36 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 1? Jun 01 $3 +$4 +120%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 30? Jun 01 $17 −$8 -44%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $18 −$18 -100%
Kim Kardashian and Lewis Hamilton confirmed relationship by June 30? May 31 $5 −$2 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 30? May 29 $5 −$1 -24%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 29? May 29 $72 −$30 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 27? May 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 28? May 28 $35 +$23 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $26 +$10 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 28? May 27 $5 −$3 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 27? May 27 $15 +$2 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C on May 27? May 27 $8 +$3 +42%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 26? May 27 $13 +$13 +101%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 26 $12 −$12 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 220.5 May 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 23? May 26 $38 −$38 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 26? May 26 $4 −$4 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 23? May 26 $15 +$8 +52%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 26? May 26 $8 −$4 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 24? May 26 $8 +$10 +126%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $6 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 52% −$45
sports 25% −$71
other 15% +$6
world 5% +$2
politics 1% +$1
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will OG Anunoby win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? BUY No 72¢ $27 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $40 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $16 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? BUY Yes 37¢ $15 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? SELL Yes 99¢ $40 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 5h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 89¢ $25 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? BUY Yes 60¢ $15 6h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 97¢ $8 8h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? SELL Yes 13¢ $7 9h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? BUY Yes 39¢ $15 25h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? BUY Yes 27¢ $16 27h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $16 27h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? BUY No 91¢ $11 28h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 29h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 68¢ $20 32h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 33¢ $10 32h
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 27¢ $9 32h
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 14¢ $5 32h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 60¢ $10 32h
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 34h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 34h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 11? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? BUY Yes 32¢ $16 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? BUY Yes 33¢ $16 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? BUY No 93¢ $15 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? SELL Yes 100¢ $52 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +4.4% -5.5% 60% 40% -1.9%
≤30d 70 -2.3% -11.6% 51% 40% -17.0%
≤90d 79 -1.9% -11.2% 53% 41% -16.1%
all 79 -1.9% -11.2% 53% 41% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 41% -16.1%
10% -19.7% 32% -24.2%
15% -27.5% 29% -31.5%
20% -34.6% 20% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.45 · official $58.45 (match) · 221 history records