Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:43:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x578e…1644 sports 51 markets active 2h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,262 (-5%) realized −$2,290 · open +$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate74%37W / 13L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$938per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$99est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$1,248now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$543
30 days−$2,773
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$1,918
other 13% −$495
world 4% +$22
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 45 -4.7% -13.7% 71% 4% -15.4%
≤90d 50 -3.4% -12.6% 74% 8% -14.2%
all 50 -3.4% -12.6% 74% 8% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 8% -14.2%
10% -20.9% 0% -22.4%
15% -28.6% 0% -29.9%
20% -35.6% 0% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$1,202) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$36 vs −$288 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$1,248
Realized−$2,290
Unrealized+$28
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses37 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$99
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage34d
Avg bet$938
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Under 90¢ 92¢ $1,219 $1,248 +$28 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,224 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $851 −$497 -58%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $792 +$57 +7%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $700 +$7 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $791 −$12 -2%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $701 +$21 +3%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $779 −$1 -0%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $1,202 −$8 -1%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $732 +$54 +7%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $687 +$45 +7%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $897 −$210 -23%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $10 +$2 +19%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $14 +$2 +11%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $1,501 −$1,501 -100%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $29 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $29 −$5 -16%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $1,202 +$49 +4%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $1,479 +$1 +0%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $1,477 +$2 +0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $1,402 +$51 +4%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 06 $1,015 +$20 +2%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $1,301 +$12 +1%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 3 Winner Jun 06 $1,301 +$12 +1%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $1,302 +$69 +5%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $1,200 +$12 +1%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs FlyQuest (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $1,191 +$109 +9%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 05 $1,171 +$11 +1%
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Jun 05 $134 +$9 +6%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $1,037 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners - Map 1 Winner Jun 03 $956 −$956 -100%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $888 +$68 +8%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $1,686 +$89 +5%
LoL: EDward Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 03 $1,587 −$36 -2%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $826 +$8 +1%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 02 $778 +$48 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 02 $2,969 −$352 -12%
Seattle Storm vs. Dallas Wings Jun 02 $917 $0 -0%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $180 +$7 +4%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks May 31 $335 +$3 +1%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $1,043 +$76 +7%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 31 $1,001 +$36 +4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $993 +$14 +2%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $501 −$165 -33%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $618 +$39 +6%
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 29 $1,054 +$33 +3%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $928 +$153 +16%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $860 +$73 +8%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 27 $852 +$7 +1%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea May 26 $769 +$84 +11%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - Esports World C May 25 $724 +$37 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 90¢ $1,223 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,223 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,224 7d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Vitality 37¢ $354 8d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 87¢ $851 8d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? SELL No 100¢ $849 9d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? BUY No 93¢ $792 9d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $7 9d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner SELL Aurora Gaming 99¢ $700 9d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 98¢ $700 9d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $780 9d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $791 9d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 99¢ $722 10d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 96¢ $701 10d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 94¢ $778 10d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $779 10d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $685 11d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $50 11d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 94¢ $701 11d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 86¢ $459 11d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 93¢ $501 11d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) SELL Norway 99¢ $786 11d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 92¢ $732 11d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $200 12d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $200 12d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $5 12d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $263 12d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 12d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $10 12d
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $49 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,247.57 · official $1,247.57 (match) · 163 history records