Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:19:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5793…6977 crypto 232 markets active 0h ago coverage 182d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$485 (-6%) realized −$481 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate30%63W / 145L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$313now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$11
7 days−$1,258
14 days−$1,258
30 days−$1,258
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$957
other 13% −$62
sports 5% +$511
tech 1% −$40
world 0% −$22
culture 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 182 -40.7% -46.4% 26% 23% -26.4%
≤30d 182 -40.7% -46.4% 26% 23% -26.4%
≤90d 182 -40.7% -46.4% 26% 23% -26.4%
all 208 -22.2% -29.6% 30% 27% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.6% 27% -15.2%
10% -36.3% 25% -23.3%
15% -42.5% 19% -30.8%
20% -48.1% 16% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$20 · ×1.85 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

182d coverage
Net worth$313
Realized−$481
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses63 / 145
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions24
Markets (closed)208 / 232
History coverage182d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 24 History 208 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 60¢ 62¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Yes 60¢ 64¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+6%)
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Yes 67¢ 69¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+4%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Yes 75¢ 76¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 50¢ 56¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+11%)
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 46¢ $20 $14 −$6 (-28%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 66¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 58¢ 60¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Yes 54¢ 46¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+15%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-20%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 40¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+65%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-6%)
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $22 −$4 -16%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$5 +26%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $13 +$41 +308%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 −$12 -57%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$15 -50%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $8 +$2 +20%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $46 −$27 -60%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$4 +42%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -93%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $56 +$12 +22%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 +$11 +37%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$22 -72%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $8 +$21 +256%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $34 −$14 -42%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 +$48 +159%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $42 −$38 -92%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $46 +$104 +227%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $87 −$85 -98%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $41 −$22 -55%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$7 -72%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $7 −$6 -82%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 +$27 +263%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $14 +$40 +276%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -98%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $2 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 +$57 +223%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $83 −$47 -57%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $22 −$21 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $13 +$144 +1077%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 13 $7 +$14 +193%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $15 +$11 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$16 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $4 +$3 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $9 +$11 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 47¢ $10 0m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $12 26m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 52¢ $8 27m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 3h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 16h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 89¢ $25 16h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 19h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 15¢ $8 19h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 19h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 19h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 19h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 19h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 19h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 22h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 23h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 23h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 23h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $5 23h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 23h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 23h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 24h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 25h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 25h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 57¢ $17 25h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $312.72 · official $312.64 (match) · 798 history records