Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T20:40:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x5795…69f9 sports 49 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$91 (-33%) realized −$89 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%22W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$97
other 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 -4.5% -13.6% 48% 48% -42.2%
≤30d 46 -4.5% -13.6% 48% 48% -42.2%
≤90d 46 -4.5% -13.6% 48% 48% -42.2%
all 46 -4.5% -13.6% 48% 48% -42.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 48% -42.2%
10% -21.9% 43% -47.8%
15% -29.4% 43% -52.8%
20% -36.3% 39% -57.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 41% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -36% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -36% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$5 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$89
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses22 / 24
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions3
Markets (closed)46 / 49
History coverage6d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Natus Vincere 60¢ 42¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-31%)
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Natus Vincere 23¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 39¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $1 +$2 +145%
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 -13%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1 +$2 +140%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1 +$2 +124%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -76%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 +$1 +54%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 +$1 +48%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +82%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +73%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs Metizport (BO3) - ROG Journey Playoffs Jun 14 $1 +$1 +123%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Walczaki (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playoffs Jun 14 $1 +$1 +89%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1 +$1 +97%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 -25%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Granit Xhaka: 1+ goals Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +56%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +64%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$1 +79%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -91%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 $0 +41%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$1 +139%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 +$1 +85%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Marko Maksimovic vs Lorenzo Gagliardo Jun 11 $14 −$5 -37%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 11 $99 −$5 -5%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Ilkley: Henrique Rocha vs Charles Broom Jun 10 $68 −$68 -100%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Mattia Bellucci vs Yannick Hanfmann Jun 10 $10 +$11 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 27¢ $0 17m
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 60¢ $1 1h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 23¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 63¢ $1 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 3h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $1 4h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 4h
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Lindorfitos 37¢ $1 5h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $3 6h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $1 9h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner SELL Saigon Warriors 100¢ $2 9h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger - Game 2 Winner BUY Saigon Warriors 53¢ $1 10h
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) BUY TDK 57¢ $1 21h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner SELL Team Liquid 11¢ $0 22h
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 3 Winner BUY Team Liquid 44¢ $1 22h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 44¢ $1 22h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 41¢ $1 23h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $2 25h
Spread: Germany (-3.5) SELL Germany 100¢ $2 25h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner SELL Nuclear TigeRES 100¢ $2 25h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 55¢ $1 26h
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Nuclear TigeRES - Map 1 Winner BUY Nuclear TigeRES 64¢ $1 27h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) SELL Vitality 100¢ $2 27h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 SELL INOX Division 100¢ $2 27h
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 BUY INOX Division 54¢ $1 28h
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) BUY Vitality 67¢ $1 29h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL FUT Esports 100¢ $2 29h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY 9z 55¢ $1 29h
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY FUT Esports 57¢ $1 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.12 · official $0.00 (match) · 131 history records