trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET | Down | 51¢ | 48¢ | $10 | $10 | −$0 (-5%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET | Down | 2¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $2 | −$8 (-75%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET | Down | 1¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET | Down | 50¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET | Down | 1¢ | 0¢ | $25 | $0 | −$25 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET | Up | 1¢ | 0¢ | $3 | $0 | −$3 (-100%) |
| Will Gwynne Shotwell be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO? | No | 0¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET | Down | 6¢ | 0¢ | $105 | $0 | −$105 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET | Up | 1¢ | 0¢ | $300 | $0 | −$300 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET | Down | 1¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET | Down | 1¢ | 0¢ | $5 | $0 | −$5 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET | Jun 13 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET | Jun 13 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET | Jun 13 | $21 | +$20 | +97% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET | Jun 13 | $16 | +$13 | +86% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET | Jun 13 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET | Jun 13 | $16 | −$5 | -32% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET | Jun 13 | $112 | −$105 | -94% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET | Jun 13 | $3 | −$3 | -94% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -94% |
| Will Gwynne Shotwell be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating Spac | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -95% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET | Jun 12 | $1 | −$1 | -97% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET | Jun 12 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET | Jun 12 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET | Jun 12 | $27 | −$25 | -94% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET | Jun 12 | $320 | −$300 | -94% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET | Jun 12 | $11 | −$10 | -94% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET | Jun 12 | $32 | +$260 | +815% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 17 | -23.6% | -30.9% | 18% | 18% | -42.3% |
| ≤30d | 17 | -23.6% | -30.9% | 18% | 18% | -42.3% |
| ≤90d | 17 | -23.6% | -30.9% | 18% | 18% | -42.3% |
| all | 17 | -23.6% | -30.9% | 18% | 18% | -42.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -30.9% | 18% | -42.3% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -37.5% | 18% | -47.8% |
| 15% | -43.6% | 18% | -52.9% |
| 20% | -49.1% | 18% | -57.5% |