Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:41:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
57 0x5797…8636 other 37 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,155 (+30%) realized +$1,155 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%16W / 18L
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day18.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$135now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$1,683
sports 15% +$192
crypto 7% −$254
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+0.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +11.4% +0.8% 47% 47% +29.8%
≤30d 34 +11.4% +0.8% 47% 47% +29.8%
≤90d 34 +11.4% +0.8% 47% 47% +29.8%
all 34 +11.4% +0.8% 47% 47% +29.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.8% 47% +29.8%
10% -8.9% 44% +17.4%
15% -17.7% 44% +6.0%
20% -25.8% 38% -4.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -67% → late +90% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$139 vs −$33 · ×4.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.7 per $1 lost it wins $3.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$135
Realized+$1,155
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses16 / 18
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)34 / 37
History coverage2d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day18.4
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $35 $32 −$3 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Japan to win the second half? Jun 21 $558 +$459 +82%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $283 +$135 +48%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $41 +$27 +65%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $41 +$194 +474%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $12 +$97 +786%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 20 $41 −$40 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $135 +$77 +57%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $546 +$291 +53%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $404 +$184 +46%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $71 +$56 +79%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $56 −$46 -82%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $218 +$26 +12%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $62 +$51 +82%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $111 +$66 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 19 $104 −$104 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -97%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 19 $27 −$25 -94%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $305 +$316 +104%
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 2 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Korea Republic O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $13 −$13 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $11 −$11 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $23 −$22 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $131 +$75 +57%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $101 +$95 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 18 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $27 −$25 -94%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $11 −$11 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? SELL Yes 26¢ $68 1h
Japan to win the second half? BUY Yes 54¢ $558 3h
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 17¢ $41 5h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 15¢ $41 7h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 16¢ $41 7h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $283 7h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 8h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 8h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $212 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $837 8h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 39¢ $41 10h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $135 11h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $505 11h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 68¢ $404 25h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 25h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $218 33h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $71 33h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $56 33h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 2.5 BUY Under 37¢ $51 33h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $113 33h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $177 33h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $51 33h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $104 33h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 35h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $13 35h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $36 35h
United States vs. Australia: United States O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $62 35h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 62¢ $111 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $134.93 · official $134.93 (match) · 60 history records