Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T01:41:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
57 0x5797…c232 other 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$54 (+5%) realized +$181 · open −$127
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%5W / 14L
Drawdown41%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day6.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit18%portable
Net worth$438now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 82% −$104
sports 18% +$175
world 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-48.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -42.7% -48.1% 26% 26% +21.0%
≤30d 19 -42.7% -48.1% 26% 26% +21.0%
≤90d 19 -42.7% -48.1% 26% 26% +21.0%
all 19 -42.7% -48.1% 26% 26% +21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -48.1% 26% +21.0%
10% -53.1% 26% +9.4%
15% -57.6% 21% -1.1%
20% -61.8% 21% -10.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -43% · $-wt +34% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -64% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$14 · ×5.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.96 per $1 lost it wins $1.96
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$438
Realized+$181
Unrealized−$127
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses5 / 14
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions9
Markets (closed)19 / 28
History coverage5d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day6.2
Drawdown41%
Kalshi-fit18%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $220 $161 −$59 (-27%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 46¢ $100 $72 −$28 (-28%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 30¢ 38¢ $40 $51 +$11 (+28%)
Will USA be eliminated in the Semifinals of the World Cup? Yes 14¢ 9¢ $71 $45 −$25 (-36%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? Yes 6¢ 3¢ $7 $3 −$4 (-52%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-42%)
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-61%)
Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $101 +$23 +23%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $81 −$80 -99%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $20 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 0 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $61 +$85 +140%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Algeria? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $61 +$139 +226%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $61 +$65 +107%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $89 +$83 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $123 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 81¢ $101 3h
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Qatar? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 3h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 6h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 76¢ $81 8h
Exact Score: Mexico 3 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 8h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 8h
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 6¢ $7 8h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $41 8h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 23h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 23h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $61 30h
Algeria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 3 Algeria? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 2d
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $41 2d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 2d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 2d
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 3d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $61 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $126 3d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 2 Uruguay? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 3 - 3 Uruguay? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 3d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $61 3d
Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $173 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $89 3d
Will Rafael Leao be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $437.57 · official $437.58 (match) · 41 history records