Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:55:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
57 0x5799…db25 sports 900 markets active 1h ago coverage 566d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6,640 (+3%) realized +$7,015 · open −$375
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%436W / 461L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$217per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Fees−$1,544est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$288now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$600
7 days−$949
14 days−$1,191
30 days−$1,358
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$108
world 25% +$10,864
other 5% −$3,835
politics 2% −$401
economics 0% −$298
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 -19.9% -27.6% 38% 33% -21.4%
≤30d 257 -3.6% -12.8% 48% 47% -12.5%
≤90d 764 -3.4% -12.6% 46% 45% -11.5%
all 897 +0.6% -9.0% 49% 47% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 47% -6.3%
10% -17.7% 45% -15.3%
15% -25.6% 41% -23.5%
20% -32.9% 37% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$178 vs −$155 · ×1.15 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

566d coverage
Net worth$288
Realized+$7,015
Unrealized−$375
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses436 / 461
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$1,544
Open positions4
Markets (closed)897 / 900
History coverage566d
Avg bet$217
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 897 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31? Yes 52¢ 64¢ $221 $271 +$50 (+23%)
Spread: England (-1.5) Croatia 75¢ 8¢ $141 $16 −$125 (-89%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $200 $1 −$199 (-100%)
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Amaru Gaming 21¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 386 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Shifters vs Team Vitality - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $500 −$500 -100%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $234 +$182 +78%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $224 +$113 +50%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $101 +$95 +94%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $203 −$200 -98%
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $204 +$309 +152%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $203 −$200 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $303 +$235 +78%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $203 +$193 +95%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $203 +$178 +88%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $102 −$100 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $497 +$753 +152%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $290 −$283 -98%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $356 −$349 -98%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs LOS - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $103 −$100 -98%
LoL: Solary vs G2 NORD - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $198 +$261 +132%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $245 −$240 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $204 +$536 +262%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $197 −$195 -99%
LoL: Team Heretics Academy vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $303 −$300 -99%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $142 −$140 -99%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite (BO3) - The International North America Ope Jun 13 $202 −$200 -99%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $68 −$67 -99%
Dota 2: GG Boom vs Ignite - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $303 −$200 -66%
Dota 2: Estar Backs vs Gior Dota Team (BO3) - The International South Jun 13 $101 +$65 +64%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $163 −$160 -98%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Jun 12 $203 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $105 −$11 -11%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $102 +$8 +8%
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: Misa Esports vs E WIE EINFACH E-SPORTS - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $101 +$49 +48%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $102 +$230 +225%
Dota 2: Inner Circle vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - The International Europe Jun 12 $102 −$100 -98%
LoL: Vivo Keyd Stars vs RED Canids - Game 2 Winner Jun 11 $201 +$19 +10%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $158 −$155 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $453 −$336 -74%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $169 −$141 -84%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $145 −$142 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $147 +$124 +85%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $203 −$160 -79%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $136 −$115 -85%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 07 $202 −$198 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $101 −$100 -99%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $205 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 75¢ $142 1h
Dota 2: Amaru Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Amaru Gaming 21¢ $102 1h
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni (BO3) - European Pro League Group B BUY 4ikibamboni 43¢ $102 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL G2 69¢ $416 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 38¢ $234 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 68¢ $337 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 3 Winner BUY Solary 58¢ $203 2d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 44¢ $224 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner SELL Galions 100¢ $196 2d
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner BUY Galions 51¢ $101 2d
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY x5 Gaming 49¢ $102 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 45¢ $203 2d
Dota 2: Lindorfitos vs x5 Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Lindorfitos 65¢ $101 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 100¢ $512 2d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 39¢ $204 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 46¢ $203 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds SELL Over 99¢ $538 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 55¢ $303 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) SELL Ciryl Gane 99¢ $396 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $203 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? SELL No 99¢ $381 2d
Fight to Go the Distance? BUY No 52¢ $203 2d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Steve Garcia 41¢ $102 2d
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31? BUY Yes 55¢ $38 2d
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $130 2d
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $53 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $1,250 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 24¢ $290 3d
Will Ukraine re-enter Maliivka by December 31? SELL Yes 55¢ $290 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $288.19 · official $304.20 · 1589 history records