Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T18:27:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
57 0x579c…120c crypto 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$86 (+1%) realized +$126 · open −$40
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%6W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$274per market
Trades / day2.4pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$607now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$279
7 days−$279
14 days−$279
30 days−$456
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% +$616
other 37% −$1,191
sports 20% +$503
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-19.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +67.1% +51.2% 33% 33% -30.0%
≤30d 10 -9.3% -17.9% 30% 30% -24.5%
≤90d 20 -11.5% -19.9% 30% 30% -9.7%
all 20 -11.5% -19.9% 30% 30% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.9% 30% -9.7%
10% -27.6% 30% -18.3%
15% -34.6% 30% -26.2%
20% -41.0% 30% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$386 vs −$168 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$607
Realized+$126
Unrealized−$40
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses6 / 14
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage53d
Avg bet$274
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Yes 56¢ 52¢ $647 $607 −$40 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 28 $139 +$516 +370%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 28 $156 −$148 -95%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $942 −$646 -69%
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $515 −$505 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 02 $37 −$35 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 01 $215 +$277 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 01 $22 −$21 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 01 $481 +$370 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 01 $243 −$234 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 01 $31 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
76ers vs. Knicks May 06 $499 −$25 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 06 $34 −$34 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 06 $352 +$452 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET May 06 $349 −$334 -96%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 May 06 $349 +$530 +152%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 06 $297 −$1 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET May 06 $262 −$252 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 06 $93 +$170 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 06 $78 −$78 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 9m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 56¢ $654 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 96¢ $655 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $139 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $110 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $296 1h
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $7 3d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $935 3d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $2 16d
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $512 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $37 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Up 79¢ $492 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $214 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up $22 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down $1 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $197 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $283 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $243 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down $1 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down $21 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $9 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down $5 48d
76ers vs. Knicks BUY 76ers 21¢ $2 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $16 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 52d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $606.80 · official $606.80 (match) · 137 history records