Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T20:50:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

57
0x579d…247c
weather · 514 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$648 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$633 · open +$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$892
Realized+$633
Unrealized+$14
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses436 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)509 / 514
History coverage86d
Avg bet$119
Trades / day32.4
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit97%
Chart Positions 5 History 509 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$70
7 days+$69
14 days+$301
30 days−$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? No 100¢ 100¢ $399 $400 +$1 (+0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? No 98¢ 99¢ $201 $203 +$2 (+1%)
Will London have less than 30mm of precipitation in June? No 86¢ 96¢ $144 $160 +$16 (+11%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? No 95¢ 94¢ $113 $112 −$1 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12? Yes 73¢ 62¢ $22 $18 −$3 (-16%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on May 4? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 9? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on May 26? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 12 $22 −$14 -64%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $444 +$4 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $198 +$1 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $66 −$15 -23%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $343 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $43 +$7 +16%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $278 +$12 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $464 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or higher on June 11? Jun 11 $199 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $8 +$39 +458%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $180 +$20 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 11? Jun 11 $390 +$9 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $155 −$7 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -93%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $6 −$4 -57%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 9? Jun 10 $48 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C or higher on June 9? Jun 10 $56 +$1 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 09 $15 +$2 +14%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 09 $7 +$1 +9%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 8? Jun 09 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 8? Jun 08 $30 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 6? Jun 06 $7 +$3 +48%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 6? Jun 06 $50 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 4? Jun 04 $49 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C or below on June 3? Jun 04 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 3? Jun 03 $22 +$15 +68%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $31 −$20 -66%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 3? Jun 03 $7 +$2 +29%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 3? Jun 03 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 2? Jun 03 $21 −$16 -78%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 2? Jun 03 $20 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 2? Jun 03 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on June 2? Jun 03 $3 +$10 +293%
Will London have between 5-10mm of precipitation in May? Jun 02 $114 −$31 -27%
Will London have between 15-20mm of precipitation in May? Jun 02 $13 +$7 +54%
Will London have between 20-25mm of precipitation in May? Jun 02 $49 +$1 +3%
Will London have between 25-30mm of precipitation in May? Jun 02 $11 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 2? Jun 02 $46 +$3 +8%
Will London have 30mm or more of precipitation in May? Jun 02 $85 +$45 +53%
Will London have less than 5mm of precipitation in May? Jun 02 $239 +$214 +89%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 2? Jun 02 $189 +$1 +0%
Will London have between 10-15mm of precipitation in May? Jun 02 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 30°C on May 30? May 31 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 30? May 31 $50 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on May 30? May 30 $0 $0 +109%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 27? May 28 $446 −$190 -43%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on May 27? May 28 $1 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on May 26? May 27 $8 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 95% +$420
other 3% +$269
tech 2% −$3
crypto 0% −$20
world 0% −$14
politics 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in London be 14°C on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $113 1m
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $8 30m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 100¢ $199 33m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 100¢ $199 33m
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $5 34m
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $10 49m
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? SELL No 99¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $218 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 73¢ $4 1h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 16°C on June 12? BUY Yes 73¢ $7 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? SELL No 100¢ $302 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? SELL No 100¢ $146 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? SELL No 100¢ $108 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? SELL No 100¢ $0 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? SELL No 100¢ $1 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? SELL No 100¢ $91 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL No 17¢ $35 5h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL No 17¢ $3 5h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL No 17¢ $5 5h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL No 17¢ $7 5h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? BUY No 99¢ $49 5h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? BUY No 99¢ $115 5h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 96¢ $11 5h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? BUY No 99¢ $82 5h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 96¢ $5 5h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 96¢ $154 5h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 96¢ $5 5h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 96¢ $24 5h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? SELL No 96¢ $6 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +13.6% +2.8% 80% 20% -7.5%
≤30d 135 -0.2% -9.7% 79% 12% -10.2%
≤90d 509 +3.1% -6.7% 86% 9% -8.6%
all 509 +3.1% -6.7% 86% 9% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover32.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.7% 9% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -15.6% 6% -17.3%
15% -23.8% 5% -25.3%
20% -31.2% 4% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $891.80 · official $891.80 (match) · 3101 history records