Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:48:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x579e…e04a other 131 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$54 (-0%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate13%17W / 113L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$18
14 days−$24
30 days−$41
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$24
sports 23% +$27
politics 23% −$18
crypto 10% −$8
culture 7% −$3
economics 4% −$1
finance 3% −$5
world 2% $0
tech 2% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -1.2% -10.6% 0% 0% -10.3%
≤30d 64 -0.9% -10.3% 5% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 112 -0.4% -9.9% 12% 1% -9.6%
all 130 -0.4% -9.9% 13% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 1% -9.7%
10% -18.5% 1% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses17 / 113
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)130 / 131
History coverage100d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 130 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 95¢ 95¢ $42 $42 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 18 $40 −$1 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $113 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $204 −$1 -0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $44 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $291 −$1 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $44 −$1 -2%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $101 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $48 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 15 $107 −$2 -2%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 15 $120 −$2 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? Jun 14 $46 −$2 -4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? Jun 14 $58 $0 -1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $96 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 13 $149 −$2 -1%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $60 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $131 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $126 $0 -0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 11 $53 −$1 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $52 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $305 −$1 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 10 $82 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 09 $20 $0 +1%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 09 $55 $0 -0%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $58 $0 -0%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 06 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 06 $152 −$2 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $61 −$1 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 05 $53 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 04 $62 $0 -0%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 04 $110 $0 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 04 $43 $0 +0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 04 $55 $0 -1%
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $38 −$3 -8%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $61 −$1 -1%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 03 $29 $0 -0%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 02 $61 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $141 −$1 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $310 −$1 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $40 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 31 $349 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $104 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $51 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 30 $61 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 30 $46 $0 -0%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $58 −$1 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 28 $56 $0 -0%
Will Casper Ruud win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $55 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 95¢ $42 30m
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 92¢ $40 1h
Will the Seattle Seahawks win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 93¢ $40 9h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 97¢ $53 9h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $54 14h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $54 15h
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $55 23h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 92¢ $44 24h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $44 29h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $43 29h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $43 37h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 38h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $44 46h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $54 46h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $54 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 96¢ $59 2d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 97¢ $59 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $46 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $48 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $51 2d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $52 3d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 90¢ $61 3d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 91¢ $62 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? SELL No 89¢ $44 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $46 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? SELL No 93¢ $57 3d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 93¢ $58 3d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $53 4d
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $53 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $57 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.18 · official $42.18 (match) · 456 history records