Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:01:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
57 0x579f…e530 world 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 413d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$59 (-35%) realized −$47 · open −$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate24%7W / 22L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$5
14 days+$5
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$20
other 34% −$4
politics 18% −$27
sports 6% −$2
economics 3% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-35.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +244.8% +212.0% 100% 100% +212.0%
≤30d 1 +244.8% +212.0% 100% 100% +212.0%
≤90d 6 -24.7% -31.8% 17% 17% -48.2%
all 29 -28.5% -35.3% 24% 24% -55.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.3% 24% -55.7%
10% -41.5% 24% -60.0%
15% -47.1% 24% -63.8%
20% -52.3% 24% -67.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -51% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -78% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

413d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$47
Unrealized−$12
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses7 / 22
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions20
Markets (closed)29 / 49
History coverage413d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 15¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 42¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 16¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-63%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 30¢ 4¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-87%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 19¢ 6¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-69%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 42¢ 10¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-77%)
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Yes 16¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-96%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Yes 29¢ 2¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $2 +$5 +245%
Will Russia join the Board of Peace? Apr 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? Apr 09 $7 −$6 -87%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Apr 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 18 $1 $0 -6%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Mar 13 $2 +$1 +72%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 13 $2 +$2 +104%
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 13 $2 +$2 +108%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 13 $2 +$3 +170%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 13 $2 +$6 +285%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Mar 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the US next strike Iran on January 14, 2026 (ET)? Jan 15 $1 −$1 -97%
US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 15 $1 −$1 -87%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 15 $1 $0 -37%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31? Jan 15 $2 −$1 -41%
Another U.S. strike on Fordow nuclear facility before July? Jan 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz before July? Jan 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Jan 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025? Jan 15 $11 −$9 -81%
US military action against Iran before July? Jun 22 $2 +$2 +109%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by Friday? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Conservative Party win the popular vote in Canada's next elec Jun 22 $3 −$3 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Conservatives win majority in Canadian election? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 29 $18 −$15 -83%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 42¢ $1 1h
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 1h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $5 55d
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 89d
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 94d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 94d
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 94d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 94d
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 94d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 137d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 137d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 139d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 26¢ $2 143d
Will Russia join the Board of Peace? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 143d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $2 143d
Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 143d
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY Yes 37¢ $2 143d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 143d
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 143d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.69 · official $63.69 (match) · 95 history records