Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T10:00:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

57
0x57a5…6a2a
sports · 205 markets active 0h ago
0.5score
+$107 +8%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$81 · open +$45
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$150
Realized+$81
Unrealized+$45
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses72 / 116
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions17
Markets (closed)188 / 205
History coverage11d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day33.4
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit66%
Chart Positions 17 History 188 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days+$23
14 days+$81
30 days+$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner T1 31¢ 100¢ $9 $29 +$20 (+222%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner T1 44¢ 100¢ $11 $24 +$14 (+125%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $19 $23 +$3 (+17%)
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Bilibili Gaming 59¢ 93¢ $9 $14 +$5 (+58%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 34¢ $7 $10 +$3 (+40%)
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI T1 41¢ 74¢ $5 $9 +$4 (+79%)
Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 54¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 70¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+76%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 5¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-11%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 26¢ 28¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+10%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 10¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-72%)
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 0 New Zealand? Yes 18¢ 14¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-23%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Counter-Strike: THUNDER dOWNUNDER vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 THUNDER dOWNUNDER 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will DR Congo vs. Chile end in a draw? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Costa Rica? Yes 17¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sinners (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Sinners 47¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Game Handicap: TES (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Team WE 61¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Nigeria? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Peru 1 - 2 Spain? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Exact Score: Greece 1 - 2 Italy? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $14 −$6 -42%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $9 +$9 +97%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $30 −$28 -91%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $20 +$12 +58%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $11 +$6 +52%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $13 +$14 +111%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $17 +$10 +58%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$2 -16%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $29 +$8 +29%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $6 +$5 +89%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $5 −$1 -25%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $6 −$5 -86%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $11 +$8 +73%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 13 $11 +$3 +26%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $6 +$5 +89%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $2 +$1 +61%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $7 −$4 -54%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs Team WE (+2.5) Jun 13 $21 −$21 -99%
Game Handicap: GEN (-2.5) vs KT Rolster (+2.5) Jun 13 $13 −$12 -94%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $4 −$4 -98%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $6 −$6 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $29 +$29 +99%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $3 +$13 +437%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $9 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $5 −$3 -55%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3 +$3 +105%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 12 $20 −$20 -99%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $27 −$10 -36%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $10 +$1 +8%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $9 −$8 -91%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $18 +$22 +118%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $27 +$12 +46%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$4 +30%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $11 +$3 +26%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 11 $8 +$4 +52%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $36 −$3 -10%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $20 +$7 +37%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $10 −$1 -6%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5) Jun 11 $6 −$6 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $7 +$6 +83%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Costa Rica? Jun 11 $1 +$6 +550%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Nigeria? Jun 10 $1 +$9 +874%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 78% +$44
other 18% +$66
crypto 3% +$16
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL Gen.G 32¢ $5 6m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY Gen.G 65¢ $11 24m
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner BUY Bilibili Gaming 59¢ $9 39m
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 49¢ $5 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 34¢ $11 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner SELL T1 42¢ $3 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 37¢ $10 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 39¢ $1 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 46¢ $3 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 41¢ $5 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 48¢ $6 1h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 31¢ $3 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner BUY T1 43¢ $3 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner BUY T1 31¢ $6 2h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 50¢ $9 3h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 4h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 4h
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 100¢ $17 6h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 57¢ $1 6h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 66¢ $10 6h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 6h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $27 8h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 8h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 55¢ $5 11h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 49¢ $1 11h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 46¢ $5 11h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) SELL Switzerland 52¢ $9 13h
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Legacy 73¢ $2 15h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 79¢ $15 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 131 -7.8% -16.5% 34% 32% -6.7%
≤30d 188 +0.7% -8.9% 38% 36% -3.1%
≤90d 188 +0.7% -8.9% 38% 36% -3.1%
all 188 +0.7% -8.9% 38% 36% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover33.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 36% -3.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 36% -12.4%
15% -25.5% 32% -20.8%
20% -32.8% 29% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.30 · official $150.30 (match) · 434 history records