Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T05:41:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

57
0x57a5…9cba
other · 89 markets active 2h ago
0.5score
−$15 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$16 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$97
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses40 / 48
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions1
Markets (closed)88 / 89
History coverage442d
Avg bet$115
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%
Chart Positions 1 History 88 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$15
14 days−$20
30 days−$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 58¢ $96 $97 +$1 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Yes 26¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $64 +$3 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $129 −$15 -12%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $107 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $107 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $109 −$2 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $115 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $322 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $492 −$2 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $97 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $228 −$2 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $444 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 31 $108 −$3 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $443 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $145 −$1 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $136 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $108 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 28 $119 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $5 $0 -9%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $2 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $167 −$45 -27%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $169 +$1 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $398 +$1 +0%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $160 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $10 +$1 +9%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $1,169 −$9 -1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $81 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $275 −$2 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $1,106 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $220 $0 +0%
Will Judy Shelton be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 18 $1,171 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 18 $440 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $282 −$2 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 17 $471 +$58 +12%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $165 −$5 -3%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 16 $9 $0 +3%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 15 $1 $0 -1%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Dec 15 $15 $0 +1%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before July? Jun 26 $6 $0 +5%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Jun 26 $6 $0 +1%
Will Dan Trifu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? May 31 $7 $0 -0%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 29 $6 $0 +0%
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by over 12%? May 27 $6 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 40-45% of the vote in the South Korea election? May 25 $10 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 24 $15 $0 -0%
Will Aston Villa finish in the top 4 of EPL? May 24 $11 −$1 -7%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 National League Championship May 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 20 $11 $0 +1%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? May 14 $5 +$1 +17%
Will Ethereum dip to $1400 in May? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 31% −$64
sports 28% −$13
other 21% +$7
economics 12% $0
politics 7% +$54
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $96 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $19 5h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 39¢ $49 5h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 37¢ $64 8h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 21¢ $58 11h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 27¢ $13 14h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 27¢ $60 14h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 27¢ $2 14h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $107 17h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $107 21h
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $107 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $107 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $107 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 68¢ $109 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $4 3d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 47¢ $56 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 46¢ $55 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $18 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $32 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $15 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $42 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $107 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $90 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $17 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $12 5d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $96 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $107 6d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $107 6d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $4 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -1.0% -10.4% 38% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 22 -5.4% -14.4% 41% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 34 -3.1% -12.3% 38% 3% -9.3%
all 88 +2.1% -7.7% 45% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 3% -9.3%
10% -16.5% 1% -17.9%
15% -24.6% 1% -25.9%
20% -32.0% 1% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.52 · official $96.53 (match) · 337 history records