Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T11:50:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
57 0x57aa…259d crypto 345 markets active 1h ago coverage 64d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 64d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,963 (+23%) realized +$3,963 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate32%112W / 233L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day43.6pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 64d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% +$108
other 20% −$26
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 233 -1.4% -10.8% 26% 15% -10.4%
≤30d 233 -1.4% -10.8% 26% 15% -10.4%
≤90d 345 +0.1% -9.4% 32% 21% -9.1%
all 345 +0.1% -9.4% 32% 21% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover43.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 21% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 14% -17.8%
15% -26.0% 9% -25.7%
20% -33.2% 4% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
0.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$10 · ×1.27 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.06 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,963
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses112 / 233
Open positions0
Markets (closed)345 / 345
History coverage64d ⚠
Avg bet$49
Trades / day43.6
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 345 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$39 +78%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$36 +72%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$13 -26%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$3 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$15 -29%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$14 -29%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$19 -39%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$13 -26%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$28 +56%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$19 -37%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$5 -9%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$12 +24%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$14 -28%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$8 +16%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$20 -40%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$5 +9%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$17 -35%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$5 -10%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$14 -27%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$10 -20%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$20 -40%
Solana Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$14 -27%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 16 $50 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$15 -31%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $50 +$5 +10%
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $50 −$11 -22%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 15 $50 $0 +0%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$5 +9%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$4 +7%
BNB Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 78¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 76¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 80¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET SELL Down 59¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 45¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 54¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 65¢ $0 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 92¢ $3 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $2 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $4 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 81¢ $1 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 16, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 86¢ $4 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records