Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T14:40:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57ae…40b9 world 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 433d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-3%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate42%14W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% −$4
politics 14% −$2
other 11% −$16
economics 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.8% -10.3% 43% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 15 -0.9% -10.3% 33% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 15 -0.9% -10.3% 33% 0% -10.2%
all 33 -11.6% -20.0% 42% 0% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 0% -12.2%
10% -27.7% 0% -20.6%
15% -34.7% 0% -28.2%
20% -41.1% 0% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

433d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses14 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)33 / 33
History coverage433d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 33 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $33 $0 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $13 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $8 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 -9%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $36 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 18 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 02 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $76 −$1 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $71 −$2 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 30 $34 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $41 −$2 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $36 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $41 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Jan 31 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Dec 17 $0 $0 -75%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Nov 26 $15 $0 +3%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 1% and 0%? Jul 05 $14 $0 +2%
Will turnout be between 1100000 and 1200000 in the NYC Democratic mayo Jul 04 $14 $0 -1%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 03 $15 $0 +0%
Will Eduardo del Castillo win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Jul 03 $16 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jul 02 $8 $0 -2%
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the electio Jul 01 $16 $0 -1%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2025 World Series? Jun 26 $16 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +1%
Will the next Pope be from North America? May 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 07 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in his first 100 days? Apr 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be out as Secretary of Health and Human Ser Apr 19 $16 $0 +0%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps decrease? Apr 18 $16 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 91¢ $34 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $7 3h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 90¢ $26 3h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $13 8h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 10h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 10h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $36 13h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $36 13h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $8 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $0 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $4 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $36 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $36 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $36 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $36 5d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $33 21d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $33 21d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 95¢ $37 23d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $37 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 78¢ $33 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $24 23d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $10 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $4 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 56¢ $30 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $26 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $8 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records