Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:16:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
57 0x57af…81ce sports 191 markets active 16h ago coverage 37d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$803 (+7%) realized +$803 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%92W / 91L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$152est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$20
7 days−$2,837
14 days−$1,227
30 days+$486
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$425
other 21% +$338
crypto 2% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -65.7% -68.9% 14% 14% -57.6%
≤30d 162 -0.5% -10.0% 45% 45% -5.6%
≤90d 183 +5.2% -4.8% 50% 49% -3.8%
all 183 +5.2% -4.8% 50% 49% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 49% -3.8%
10% -13.9% 48% -13.0%
15% -22.2% 45% -21.4%
20% -29.9% 43% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +52% → late -41% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$46 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.18 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$803
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses92 / 91
Est. fees paid−$152
Open positions0
Markets (closed)183 / 191
History coverage37d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 183 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cam Schlittler: Strikeouts O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $25 +$14 +57%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 20 $51 +$40 +79%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 −$1 -4%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 19 $25 −$1 -4%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $41 −$5 -11%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$7 +29%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 19 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $101 +$77 +76%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $25 +$28 +109%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 +$125 +123%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 +$64 +126%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$17 -54%
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 24.5 Jun 15 $61 −$13 -21%
Jalen Brunson: Rebounds O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Thunder (-8.5) Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 win on 2026-05-16? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $203 −$203 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $154 −$154 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $609 −$609 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $152 +$37 +24%
O/U 2.5 Rounds Jun 15 $204 +$323 +158%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Thunder vs. Spurs Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Fluminense FC (-2.5) Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5) Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will CA Boca Juniors win on 2026-05-28? Jun 15 $101 −$51 -51%
Real Madrid CF vs. Athletic Club: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $405 +$299 +74%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Athletics Jun 14 $51 −$51 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 58¢ $24 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 63¢ $24 15h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $36 15h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $41 16h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 80¢ $33 16h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 18h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 18h
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Milwaukee Brewers 60¢ $25 18h
Cam Schlittler: Strikeouts O/U 6.5 BUY Over 63¢ $25 20h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 55¢ $51 20h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 20h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $26 46h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 15¢ $26 46h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY 33¢ $26 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $25 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 2d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY 41¢ $25 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 26¢ $41 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 27¢ $61 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY 28¢ $51 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 16¢ $51 2d
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals AND Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 AND Iraq vs. Nor BUY 65¢ $10 3d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $53 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $227 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL 97¢ $115 3d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Over $0 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 44¢ $102 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $31 3d
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Atlanta Braves 61¢ $101 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 437 history records