Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:35:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
57 0x57af…1a28 sports 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 260d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,803 (-8%) realized −$1,803 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%31W / 28L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$368per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit59%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$151
7 days+$151
14 days+$151
30 days+$151
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$840
other 45% −$913
politics 3% +$142
finance 2% +$312
world 1% −$274
crypto 1% −$102
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +55.4% +40.6% 75% 75% +44.5%
≤30d 4 +55.4% +40.6% 75% 75% +44.5%
≤90d 4 +55.4% +40.6% 75% 75% +44.5%
all 59 -6.5% -15.4% 53% 49% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 49% -15.8%
10% -23.5% 42% -23.9%
15% -30.9% 37% -31.2%
20% -37.7% 25% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% too few recent
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -8% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$165 vs −$243 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

260d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,803
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses31 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage260d
Avg bet$368
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit59%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions (15 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $111 +$88 +79%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $51 −$15 -30%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $51 +$42 +83%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $41 +$36 +90%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-08? Nov 08 $105 +$52 +50%
Will Tottenham vs. Manchester United end in a draw? Nov 08 $26 +$78 +300%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Nov 08 $100 −$74 -74%
Rangers vs. Kraken Nov 02 $200 −$200 -100%
Spread: Real Madrid (-2.5) Nov 02 $1,525 −$22 -1%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? Nov 01 $400 −$392 -98%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-11-01? Nov 01 $1,506 −$1,423 -94%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) Oct 31 $600 −$119 -20%
Predators vs. Flyers Oct 31 $500 +$347 +70%
Devils vs. Sharks Oct 31 $250 −$250 -100%
Florida International vs. Missouri State Oct 30 $1,168 +$257 +22%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 30 $500 +$132 +26%
49ers vs. Texans Oct 30 $400 −$302 -75%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-29? Oct 30 $500 −$500 -100%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Oct 30 $400 −$263 -66%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-10-29? Oct 30 $500 +$269 +54%
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2025-10-29? Oct 29 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $118,000 October 27-November 2? Oct 29 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Napoli win on 2025-10-28? Oct 29 $500 +$320 +64%
Bears vs. Ravens Oct 27 $250 +$189 +75%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-10-26? Oct 27 $500 +$102 +20%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-26? Oct 27 $700 +$357 +51%
Spread: Buccaneers (-5.5) Oct 26 $387 −$138 -36%
Spread: Texans (-2.5) Oct 26 $550 −$550 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Saints Oct 26 $450 −$19 -4%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-10-26? Oct 26 $200 +$81 +41%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-10-26? Oct 26 $300 −$226 -76%
Kansas State vs. Kansas Oct 25 $900 +$241 +27%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-10-25? Oct 25 $250 +$260 +104%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-10-25? Oct 25 $166 +$20 +12%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-25? Oct 25 $508 +$207 +41%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-10-25? Oct 25 $200 −$34 -17%
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Oct 25 $300 −$300 -100%
Spurs vs. Pelicans Oct 25 $300 +$184 +61%
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Oct 25 $300 −$300 -100%
Flyers vs. Senators Oct 24 $644 +$201 +31%
Wild vs. Devils Oct 23 $300 +$236 +79%
Will Tesla (TSLA) say "Competition" during earnings call? Oct 23 $400 +$312 +78%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-10-22? Oct 23 $500 +$224 +45%
76ers vs. Celtics Oct 23 $100 +$2 +2%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Oct 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Warriors vs. Lakers Oct 22 $200 +$93 +46%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2025-10-21? Oct 22 $200 +$145 +72%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2025-10-21? Oct 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 2PM ET Oct 20 $100 −$2 -2%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-10-19? Oct 20 $1,257 +$465 +37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: France (-2.5) SELL France 100¢ $200 1h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 37¢ $36 1h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 55¢ $51 28h
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 51¢ $51 28h
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 55¢ $61 28h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $41 35h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 54¢ $51 35h
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-08? SELL Yes 43¢ $157 226d
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-08? BUY Yes 29¢ $105 226d
Will Tottenham vs. Manchester United end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $26 226d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? SELL Yes 6¢ $26 226d
Rangers vs. Kraken BUY Kraken 47¢ $200 232d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 233d
Spread: Real Madrid (-2.5) BUY Real Madrid 45¢ $89 233d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? SELL Yes 3¢ $6 233d
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-11-01? SELL Yes 4¢ $83 233d
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-11-01? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,306 233d
Spread: Real Madrid (-2.5) SELL Real Madrid 40¢ $1,306 233d
Spread: Real Madrid (-2.5) BUY Real Madrid 44¢ $1,436 233d
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-11-01? BUY Yes 60¢ $100 233d
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-11-01? BUY Yes 59¢ $100 233d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? BUY Yes 41¢ $100 233d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-01? BUY Yes 72¢ $300 233d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) SELL Anyones Legend 6¢ $25 234d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) BUY Anyones Legend 70¢ $300 234d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) SELL T1 76¢ $456 234d
Devils vs. Sharks BUY Devils 55¢ $250 235d
Predators vs. Flyers BUY Flyers 59¢ $500 235d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5) BUY T1 50¢ $300 235d
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? SELL Yes 100¢ $632 235d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 136 history records