Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T00:26:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
57 0x57b1…4b99 sports 237 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$9,342 (-5%) realized −$8,611 · open −$731
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%111W / 117L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$784per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1,398est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5,869now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2,241
7 days−$2,798
14 days−$3,685
30 days−$424
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$11,304
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 -11.0% -19.4% 48% 48% -19.4%
≤30d 122 -2.7% -12.0% 51% 51% -10.0%
≤90d 146 -3.4% -12.6% 50% 50% -11.7%
all 228 -5.3% -14.3% 49% 49% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 49% -14.8%
10% -22.5% 49% -23.0%
15% -30.0% 49% -30.4%
20% -36.9% 49% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$1,000) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$734 vs −$787 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$5,869
Realized−$8,611
Unrealized−$731
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses111 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$1,398
Open positions9
Markets (closed)228 / 237
History coverage135d
Avg bet$784
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 228 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Chicago White Sox 32¢ 53¢ $600 $994 +$394 (+66%)
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Boston Red Sox 61¢ 96¢ $600 $943 +$343 (+57%)
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Over 52¢ 56¢ $600 $652 +$52 (+9%)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5 Over 58¢ 48¢ $600 $491 −$109 (-18%)
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 Over 55¢ 38¢ $600 $409 −$191 (-32%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Over 53¢ 29¢ $600 $329 −$271 (-45%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 Over 54¢ 28¢ $600 $311 −$289 (-48%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Over 56¢ 28¢ $600 $295 −$305 (-51%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Over 49¢ 20¢ $600 $245 −$355 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 25 $608 +$422 +70%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 Jun 25 $610 +$695 +114%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $608 −$608 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $608 +$524 +86%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 25 $609 +$568 +93%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $609 +$641 +105%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $609 −$600 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 25 $609 +$600 +98%
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Jun 24 $608 +$427 +70%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 24 $606 +$329 +54%
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $608 −$608 -100%
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) Jun 24 $607 +$346 +57%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 24 $609 −$609 -100%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 24 $606 +$317 +52%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 24 $609 −$609 -100%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 23 $607 +$361 +60%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $608 +$503 +83%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $610 −$610 -100%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 23 $607 −$607 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $608 −$608 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $608 −$608 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 Jun 23 $609 −$609 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 23 $606 −$606 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $609 −$609 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Jun 23 $609 −$609 -100%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 23 $608 +$524 +86%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 23 $608 +$512 +84%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $609 −$609 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $608 −$608 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $608 +$524 +86%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $609 +$610 +100%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 21 $609 +$568 +93%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $610 −$610 -100%
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-2.5) Jun 21 $610 −$610 -100%
Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5) Jun 21 $606 +$317 +52%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $609 −$609 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 20 $610 +$695 +114%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5 Jun 20 $608 −$608 -100%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 20 $612 +$1,103 +180%
Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 20 $609 −$609 -100%
Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5) Jun 20 $612 −$612 -100%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 20 $606 −$606 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $608 −$608 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 8.5 Jun 19 $608 +$491 +81%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $609 +$545 +90%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 9.5 Jun 19 $609 +$577 +95%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 19 $606 +$331 +55%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 18 $608 −$608 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $608 +$483 +79%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 Jun 18 $609 −$609 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 54¢ $608 1h
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 61¢ $607 2h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $609 10h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 53¢ $608 10h
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 52¢ $609 10h
Washington Nationals vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 55¢ $608 10h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 56¢ $608 34h
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 52¢ $609 34h
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $609 34h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 46¢ $610 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 48¢ $609 2d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Washington Nationals 58¢ $608 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 56¢ $608 2d
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 51¢ $609 2d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $609 3d
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Houston Astros 64¢ $606 3d
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) BUY San Francisco Giants 65¢ $606 3d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 53¢ $609 3d
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5) BUY Detroit Tigers 63¢ $607 3d
Athletics vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 54¢ $608 3d
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 58¢ $608 3d
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 54¢ $608 3d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Minnesota Twins 54¢ $608 4d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $609 4d
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 53¢ $608 4d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $609 4d
Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 53¢ $608 4d
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 48¢ $609 4d
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 49¢ $609 5d
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) BUY Atlanta Braves 65¢ $606 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,869.23 · official $5,869.35 (match) · 523 history records