Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:07:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
57 0x57b3…356a crypto 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$507 (+68%) realized +$507 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +47% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%8W / 8L
Drawdown25%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$453
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+33.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +47.2% +33.2% 50% 50% +47.8%
≤30d 16 +47.2% +33.2% 50% 50% +47.8%
≤90d 16 +47.2% +33.2% 50% 50% +47.8%
all 16 +47.2% +33.2% 50% 50% +47.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +33.2% 50% +47.8%
10% ← realistic here +20.4% 50% +33.7%
15% +8.8% 50% +20.7%
20% -1.9% 50% +8.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +63% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +47% · $-wt +63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +96% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$89 vs −$33 · ×2.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.74 per $1 lost it wins $2.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$507
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses8 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown25%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (5 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 26 $52 −$25 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$19 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 26 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$54 +207%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 26 $11 +$22 +210%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 26 $104 +$144 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 26 $104 +$114 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 26 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 26 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $131 +$181 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 26 $27 +$152 +574%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$27 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 59¢ $51 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Up 81¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $104 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $27 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records