Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:57:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57b3…0a81 crypto 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$13 (-35%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate31%5W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day23.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$12
sports 33% −$7
other 5% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +9.3% -1.1% 31% 31% -47.1%
≤30d 16 +9.3% -1.1% 31% 31% -47.1%
≤90d 16 +9.3% -1.1% 31% 31% -47.1%
all 16 +9.3% -1.1% 31% 31% -47.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -1.1% 31% -47.1%
10% ← realistic here -10.6% 25% -52.1%
15% -19.2% 25% -56.8%
20% -27.2% 25% -61.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -42% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt -42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +50% → late -32% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses5 / 11
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day23.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$3 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$4 +351%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $1 +$4 +365%
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $2 +$4 +185%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Up 65¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Up 75¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 1¢ $0 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 6h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $1 18h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $5 19h
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 99¢ $6 19h
Will Sean O'Malley win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 19h
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai BUY Michael Chandler 24¢ $1 20h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $5 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 44 history records