Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:24:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57b4…64ca crypto 69 markets active 2h ago coverage 214d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$414 (-3%) realized −$409 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate82%56W / 12L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$223per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$58now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$188
7 days−$393
14 days−$393
30 days−$391
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 31% −$76
world 28% −$160
other 16% −$111
sports 15% −$190
economics 7% +$5
politics 1% +$1
finance 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -16.8% -24.7% 63% 19% -16.6%
≤30d 28 -16.2% -24.2% 64% 18% -16.0%
≤90d 34 -13.2% -21.5% 71% 15% -14.1%
all 68 -7.8% -16.6% 82% 7% -12.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 7% -12.6%
10% -24.6% 4% -21.0%
15% -31.8% 1% -28.6%
20% -38.5% 1% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$64 · ×0.07 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

214d coverage
Net worth$58
Realized−$409
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses56 / 12
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)68 / 69
History coverage214d
Avg bet$223
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 68 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Tunisia 62¢ 57¢ $62 $57 −$5 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $175 −$102 -58%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $297 −$119 -40%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $83 +$17 +20%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $277 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $267 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $184 +$11 +6%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $24 +$6 +27%
Spread: Canada (-2.5) Jun 18 $99 +$1 +1%
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $35 −$24 -69%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $54 −$53 -99%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $11 −$10 -90%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $537 −$213 -40%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $486 +$8 +2%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $497 +$16 +3%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $380 +$20 +5%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $103 +$27 +26%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $8 −$1 -17%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $16 −$5 -32%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $56 −$55 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $188 $0 +0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $500 +$5 +1%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $30 +$2 +6%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $194 +$6 +3%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $280 +$30 +11%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $56 +$44 +79%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 14 $143 +$3 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $509 +$2 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 21 $541 +$6 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 22 $394 +$3 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 18 $265 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? Apr 11 $128 +$1 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 01 $384 +$2 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Mar 28 $257 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 21 $129 $0 +0%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 2? Mar 18 $19 +$1 +4%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 28 $182 −$180 -99%
US strikes Iran by February 27, 2026? Feb 27 $195 $0 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? Feb 26 $389 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? Feb 24 $377 +$2 +1%
US strikes Iran by February 21, 2026? Feb 21 $574 +$1 +0%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 21 $385 +$1 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 20 $192 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on February 6? Feb 09 $193 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 06 $382 $0 +0%
Will the government shutdown last 1 day or more? Feb 02 $191 +$1 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 28 $188 +$2 +1%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jan 21 $379 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 13? Jan 18 $189 +$1 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Jan 02 $544 +$3 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Tunisia 62¢ $63 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 37¢ $73 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 87¢ $175 11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? SELL No 61¢ $178 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $191 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $106 13h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 83¢ $83 29h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 99¢ $277 31h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? SELL Yes 100¢ $270 37h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $267 40h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? SELL No 98¢ $90 40h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? SELL No 98¢ $106 41h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 19? BUY No 92¢ $184 45h
Spread: Canada (-2.5) SELL Canada 100¢ $100 2d
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada 99¢ $16 2d
Spread: Canada (-2.5) BUY Canada 99¢ $83 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 11¢ $11 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $35 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $54 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $24 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 57¢ $104 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 57¢ $41 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 57¢ $27 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 57¢ $11 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 57¢ $16 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 57¢ $124 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $1 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $64 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 94¢ $472 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.50 · official $57.50 (match) · 254 history records