Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T01:20:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
57 0x57b9…9050 other 40 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$3,919 (-26%) realized −$3,919 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate52%21W / 19L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$373per market
Trades / day6.9pace
Fees−$74est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$449
7 days−$1,288
14 days−$2,687
30 days−$4,006
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% −$3,729
sports 28% −$278
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-20.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -36.7% -42.7% 44% 31% -31.9%
≤30d 40 -12.1% -20.5% 52% 38% -33.9%
≤90d 40 -12.1% -20.5% 52% 38% -33.9%
all 40 -12.1% -20.5% 52% 38% -33.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.5% 38% -33.9%
10% -28.1% 30% -40.2%
15% -35.1% 25% -46.0%
20% -41.4% 18% -51.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$504) neutral
Persistence
early +0% → late -25% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$143 vs −$368 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3,919
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses21 / 19
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$74
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage16d
Avg bet$373
Trades / day6.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 40 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $307 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $502 +$93 +18%
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $350 −$350 -100%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $190 −$190 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $484 −$484 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $620 −$620 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 +$10 +10%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 24 $147 +$53 +36%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $225 +$55 +24%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 23 $500 +$500 +100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $470 +$30 +6%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Norway 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $795 +$114 +14%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $74 −$74 -100%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $406 −$392 -97%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $408 +$521 +128%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $150 −$67 -45%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $520 +$280 +54%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $40 −$4 -10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1,122 −$1,120 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 +$5 +5%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$5 +5%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $101 +$21 +21%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $102 +$116 +114%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $471 −$465 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,117 −$1,117 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $78 −$78 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $695 +$53 +8%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $100 +$300 +300%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $101 +$74 +73%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $100 −$85 -85%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$107 +105%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $504 +$154 +31%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,671 −$1,000 -60%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $824 −$820 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +6%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $202 +$82 +41%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1,009 +$419 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 25¢ $305 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $307 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 84¢ $502 22h
Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 35¢ $350 32h
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $190 32h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 44¢ $484 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $620 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 89¢ $111 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 2d
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 73¢ $147 3d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $55 3d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $15 3d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $8 3d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 3d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 3d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 3d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 3d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $2 3d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $10 3d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 3d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 3d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 3d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 3d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 3d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 3d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $6 3d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $3 3d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $30 3d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 3d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 138 history records