Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:05:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57ba…a7c7 other 130 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$234 (+0%) realized +$233 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate15%19W / 109L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown85%max
Avg bet$863per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$1,161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$13
30 days−$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$62
other 33% +$946
sports 13% −$651
culture 4% −$6
world 4% −$7
economics 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$1
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 72 -0.1% -9.6% 6% 0% -9.6%
all 128 -4.5% -13.6% 15% 10% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.6% 10% -9.3%
10% -21.9% 10% -18.0%
15% -29.4% 10% -25.9%
20% -36.4% 9% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 48% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,179) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -9% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$12 · ×6.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$1,161
Realized+$233
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)15%
Wins / losses19 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)128 / 130
History coverage132d
Avg bet$863
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown85%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 128 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $685 $687 +$2 (+0%)
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? No 100¢ 100¢ $475 $475 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 21 $472 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 21 $474 −$1 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $1,514 −$2 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $475 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $727 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,716 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,025 −$2 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 12 $2,228 −$3 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,049 −$2 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $858 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,133 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $846 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,057 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 04 $278 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? Jun 04 $404 +$1 +0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $403 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,662 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 28 $450 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $484 −$1 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $567 −$1 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $1,620 −$2 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,578 −$2 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,860 −$2 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 09 $1,106 −$2 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $1,179 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,176 −$2 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,176 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $1,176 −$2 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 07 $1,170 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 06 $1,186 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $1,189 −$2 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $1,159 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 02 $1,123 −$1 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $1,137 −$1 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $809 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Apr 30 $1,060 −$1 -0%
Will Na Kyung-won win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 27 $1,757 −$2 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $1,045 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 21 $207 $0 -0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 Apr 21 $384 −$1 -0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on April Apr 21 $211 −$1 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 20 $1,036 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 20 $1,907 −$2 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $5,172 −$4 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 18 $1,234 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,012 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 17 $1,020 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $1,682 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 16 $1,029 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $2,032 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $475 1h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $471 4d
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $472 4d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $474 5d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $474 5d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $474 6d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $474 6d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $475 7d
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $475 7d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $685 8d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $726 11d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $727 11d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,152 12d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,153 12d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,038 13d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,040 13d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,023 13d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,025 13d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $1,040 13d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,041 14d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,047 19d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,049 19d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $857 20d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $858 20d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,132 20d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,133 20d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $845 21d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $846 21d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $984 22d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $986 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,161.49 · official $1,161.49 (match) · 428 history records