Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:00:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
57 0x57bb…9302 sports 176 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,287 (+6%) realized +$1,290 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%93W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$257est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$282
7 days−$366
14 days+$175
30 days+$907
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 86% +$1,732
other 11% −$539
crypto 2% −$124
world 1% −$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -18.5% -26.2% 40% 40% -25.8%
≤30d 74 +14.1% +3.3% 54% 54% +1.4%
≤90d 175 +1.4% -8.2% 53% 53% -4.8%
all 175 +1.4% -8.2% 53% 53% -4.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 53% -4.8%
10% -17.0% 52% -13.9%
15% -25.0% 46% -22.3%
20% -32.4% 41% -29.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$92 vs −$92 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized+$1,290
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses93 / 82
Est. fees paid−$257
Open positions1
Markets (closed)175 / 176
History coverage83d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 175 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
RCA Zemamra vs. OC Safi: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 45¢ $71 $68 −$3 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 33 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $75 −$3 -4%
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $101 −$100 -99%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $99 +$78 +79%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $58 −$57 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $101 −$100 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $102 −$100 -98%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $102 +$111 +109%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $101 +$71 +70%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $102 −$100 -98%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $100 +$110 +109%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $200 −$105 -52%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $95 −$93 -98%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $101 +$71 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $100 +$59 +59%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $100 −$98 -98%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $101 +$95 +93%
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $101 +$98 +97%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 −$100 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$102 +101%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$142 +139%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $102 +$121 +119%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $101 +$102 +101%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $101 +$102 +101%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$99 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $87 −$85 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $101 +$87 +86%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 +$228 +223%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $151 +$52 +35%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $101 −$100 -99%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $102 +$61 +60%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $102 +$116 +114%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $102 +$116 +114%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $99 +$96 +97%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $102 +$98 +97%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $104 −$103 -98%
Will Hungary vs. Kazakhstan end in a draw? Jun 09 $92 −$92 -100%
Armenia vs. Moldova: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $104 +$93 +89%
Philippines vs. Myanmar: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $111 +$94 +84%
Will Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 08 $90 +$421 +465%
Will Jordan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 08 $103 −$100 -97%
Jordan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $101 +$65 +64%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 07 $102 −$4 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
RCA Zemamra vs. OC Safi: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $72 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 54¢ $72 1h
Ecuador vs. Germany: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $75 2h
Czechia vs. Mexico: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $101 12h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $99 16h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $58 34h
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $101 38h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $102 42h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $102 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $172 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $101 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $102 2d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $100 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $100 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $95 4d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 49¢ $95 4d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $100 4d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $102 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $172 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $101 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $160 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 62¢ $100 4d
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $100 5d
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $101 5d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $101 6d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $101 6d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $199 6d
Czechia vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $101 6d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $102 7d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $204 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $67.92 · official $68.68 (match) · 349 history records