Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:08:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57bf…ea6d crypto 22 markets active 3d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$12 (-2%) realized −$12 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate36%8W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day24.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -7.6% -16.4% 36% 32% -15.5%
≤30d 22 -7.6% -16.4% 36% 32% -15.5%
≤90d 22 -7.6% -16.4% 36% 32% -15.5%
all 22 -7.6% -16.4% 36% 32% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.4% 32% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -24.4% 23% -23.6%
15% -31.7% 14% -31.0%
20% -38.4% 14% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$5 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses8 / 14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage4d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day24.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$5 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $82 −$7 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $51 −$3 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $41 −$7 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $82 −$4 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 14 $31 −$6 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$3 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $21 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$1 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$2 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 11 $21 −$3 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$15 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$3 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET SELL Up 43¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 84¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $12 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 47¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 52¢ $7 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 61¢ $8 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 54¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Down 65¢ $11 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $9 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 102 history records