Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:26:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57c5…1601 other 871 markets active 0h ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$17 (+0%) realized +$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%866W / 3L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$3
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$12
sports 44% +$2
politics 2% +$1
crypto 1% $0
weather 1% $0
tech 0% $0
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 250 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 1% -9.1%
≤90d 812 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 1% -9.2%
all 869 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 1% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 1% -9.2%
10% -18.1% 0% -17.9%
15% -26.0% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×4.08 per $1 lost it wins $4.08
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses866 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)869 / 871
History coverage94d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 869 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Steiner vs. Bennemann: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Over 100¢ 100¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Steiner vs. Bennemann: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Under 100¢ 100¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Poertner vs. Barsukov: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $5 $0 +2%
Meszaros vs. Balazs: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Set Handicap: Majdandzic (-1.5) vs Sickenberger (+1.5) Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Halle Open: Completed Match: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Kenzhibayeva vs. Markina: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Bjork vs. Skoog: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Chiesa vs. Tsygourova: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Ferro vs. Rocchetti: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
ITF Men Maanshan: Completed Match: Jia Hu vs Jaesung Choe Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Set 1 Winner: Golas vs Frodin Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Thea Marcu vs. Rose Marie Nijkamp: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Janicijevic vs. Konstantinova: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Yazeed Abulaila: 4+ saves Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Carney Chukwuemeka: 1+ shots on target Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Paul Wanner: 1+ shots Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Alessandro Schöpf: 2+ shots Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Ali Olwan: 4+ goals + assists Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
ITF Men Maanshan: Completed Match: Kasidit Samrej vs Alberto Lim Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Samrej vs. Lim: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Anis Hadj Moussa: 2+ shots Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Nicolás González: 5+ shots Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Amine Gouiri: 2+ shots on target Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Set 2 Winner: Chen vs Oh Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Heck vs. Jones: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Brandon Young: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Liu vs. Tsujioka: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
MJ Melendez: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Jasson Domínguez: Home Runs O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Tiago Splitter be the next head coach of the Chicago Bulls? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Maghnes Akliouche: 1+ shots on target Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Oliver Glasner be the next manager of Elche CF? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Bekeni vs. Daskalovic: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Johnson advance from the CA-16 primary election? Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Chris Wood: 2+ shots on target Jun 16 $5 $0 +1%
Alireza Jahanbakhsh: 1+ shots on target Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Alireza Jahanbakhsh: 1+ shots Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Federico Viñas: 4+ shots Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Rodrigo Aguirre: 1+ goals + assists Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Emiliano Martínez: 2+ shots Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Khalid Al Ghannam: 1+ shots Jun 16 $5 $0 +0%
Ibrahim Adel: 2+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Diego Moreira: 2+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Alex Baena: 3+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Hannibal Mejbri: 4+ shots Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Sebastian Tounekti: 1+ shots on target Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will Pavel Dorofeyev lead the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals in goals? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Steiner vs. Bennemann: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $4 17m
Steiner vs. Bennemann: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $4 17m
Poertner vs. Barsukov: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 1h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Refuser 98¢ $5 2h
Meszaros vs. Balazs: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 2h
Set Handicap: Majdandzic (-1.5) vs Sickenberger (+1.5) BUY Majdandzic 100¢ $5 2h
Halle Open: Completed Match: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Yes 100¢ $5 3h
Kenzhibayeva vs. Markina: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 4h
Chiesa vs. Tsygourova: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Over 100¢ $4 4h
Bjork vs. Skoog: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 100¢ $5 4h
Ferro vs. Rocchetti: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 4h
Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? BUY Under 100¢ $5 4h
ITF Men Maanshan: Completed Match: Jia Hu vs Jaesung Choe BUY Yes 100¢ $5 5h
Set 1 Winner: Golas vs Frodin BUY Frodin 100¢ $5 5h
Thea Marcu vs. Rose Marie Nijkamp: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 100¢ $5 6h
Janicijevic vs. Konstantinova: Match O/U 21.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 6h
Yazeed Abulaila: 4+ saves BUY No 100¢ $5 6h
Carney Chukwuemeka: 1+ shots on target BUY Yes 100¢ $5 7h
Paul Wanner: 1+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 7h
Alessandro Schöpf: 2+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 8h
Ali Olwan: 4+ goals + assists BUY No 100¢ $5 9h
ITF Men Maanshan: Completed Match: Kasidit Samrej vs Alberto Lim BUY No 100¢ $4 9h
Samrej vs. Lim: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 9h
Anis Hadj Moussa: 2+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 10h
Nicolás González: 5+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 10h
Amine Gouiri: 2+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 10h
Set 2 Winner: Chen vs Oh BUY Oh 100¢ $5 10h
Heck vs. Jones: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 11h
Brandon Young: Strikeouts O/U 4.5 BUY Under 100¢ $4 11h
Liu vs. Tsujioka: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.96 · official $7.96 (match) · 1984 history records