trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 12 | +0.4% | -9.1% | 100% | 0% | -9.1% |
| ≤30d | 13 | +1.4% | -8.3% | 100% | 8% | -2.8% |
| ≤90d | 30 | -2.1% | -11.5% | 70% | 27% | +35.4% |
| all | 39 | +19.9% | +8.5% | 77% | 41% | +37.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | +8.5% | 41% | +37.5% |
| 10% | -1.9% | 33% | +24.4% |
| 15% | -11.4% | 33% | +12.4% |
| 20% | -20.1% | 33% | +1.3% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | No | 99¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+1%) |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting? | Yes | 99¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C or below on June 13? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C or higher on June 13 | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will SpaceX IPO by August 31, 2026? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will SpaceX IPO by September 30, 2026? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will SpaceX IPO by December 31, 2026? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? | Jun 11 | $1 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | May 24 | $18 | +$2 | +12% |
| Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | May 15 | $16 | +$2 | +14% |
| Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | Apr 21 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Grizzlies vs. Nets | Apr 18 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Hurricanes vs. Canadiens | Apr 18 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Tennessee Volunteers vs. Virginia Cavaliers | Apr 18 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Nuggets vs. Spurs | Apr 18 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Senators vs. Capitals | Apr 18 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Flyers vs. Sharks | Apr 18 | $2 | −$2 | -100% |
| Islanders vs. Maple Leafs | Apr 18 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Bucks vs. Heat | Apr 18 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Apr 17 | $16 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Apr 07 | $13 | +$3 | +20% |
| Raptors vs. Clippers | Apr 05 | $2 | +$1 | +59% |
| Rockets vs. Bulls | Mar 24 | $2 | +$6 | +317% |
| Heat vs. Rockets | Mar 22 | $1 | +$1 | +82% |
| Spread: Alabama Crimson Tide (-11.5) | Mar 21 | $106 | +$101 | +95% |
| TCU Horned Frogs vs. Ohio State Buckeyes | Mar 20 | $2 | +$2 | +132% |
| Jazz vs. Kings | Mar 17 | $1 | +$1 | +72% |
| Kings vs. Rangers | Mar 17 | $1 | +$1 | +92% |
| Panthers vs. Kraken | Mar 16 | $1 | +$1 | +113% |
| Nuggets vs. Lakers | Mar 15 | $2 | +$3 | +138% |
| Bruins vs. Capitals | Mar 15 | $2 | +$2 | +113% |
| Suns vs. Raptors | Mar 14 | $1 | +$1 | +61% |
| Kings vs. Islanders | Mar 14 | $1 | +$2 | +127% |
| Raptors vs. Pelicans | Mar 12 | $1 | +$1 | +123% |
| Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026? | Feb 28 | $1 | $0 | +0% |