Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:16:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57c8…2ec4 crypto 357 markets active 4d ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$120 (-1%) realized −$137 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate54%192W / 164L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$58per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$883now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$343
30 days−$429
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 84% −$577
world 8% +$560
other 7% −$373
tech 0% −$22
sports 0% −$10
economics 0% −$3
politics 0% $0
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -50.8% -55.5% 0% 0% -23.8%
≤30d 106 -6.3% -15.2% 64% 35% -13.8%
≤90d 356 -9.7% -18.3% 54% 34% -11.4%
all 356 -9.7% -18.3% 54% 34% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 34% -11.4%
10% -26.1% 20% -19.9%
15% -33.3% 12% -27.6%
20% -39.8% 7% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$18 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$883
Realized−$137
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses192 / 164
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)356 / 357
History coverage58d
Avg bet$58
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 356 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $866 $883 +$17 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 14 $6 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $1,278 −$341 -27%
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? May 29 $3 −$1 -26%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 27? May 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May? May 27 $3 −$2 -58%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 25 $30 +$22 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 25 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 24? May 24 $11 −$10 -94%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? May 23 $100 −$38 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 23 $9 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 23 $29 −$9 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET May 23 $20 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET May 23 $20 −$19 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET May 23 $20 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 22 $153 −$89 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET May 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 22 $20 +$5 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 22 $19 +$5 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 22 $102 −$59 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET May 22 $102 −$16 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 22 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 21 $202 −$28 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 21 $101 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 21 $152 +$15 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 21 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 21 $71 +$11 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 21 $71 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 21 $61 +$10 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET May 21 $51 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 21 $1 +$3 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 21 $102 +$31 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 21 $31 −$8 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 21 $120 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 21 $102 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET May 21 $102 −$19 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 21 $20 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 21 $92 +$44 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 21 $72 −$18 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 21 $91 −$87 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 21 $81 +$12 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 21 $242 +$16 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET May 21 $102 +$6 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 21 $91 −$32 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 21 $47 −$18 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET May 21 $154 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET May 21 $71 −$70 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 21 $121 +$9 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $6 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 62¢ $6 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 5d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 6d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $875 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 37¢ $876 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $23 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $12 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $13 16d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 52¢ $13 17d
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 20d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 27? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 21d
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May? SELL Yes 8¢ $1 21d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $665 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $300 23d
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $12 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $40 23d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $50 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $2 24d
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 25d
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 25d
Fed rate cut by September 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 25d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $5 25d
Will XRP dip to $1.20 in May? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 25d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $2 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 25d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 25d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 24? BUY Yes 4¢ $11 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $60 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $882.78 · official $882.78 (match) · 1219 history records