Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:05:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57c8…3d9b sports 445 markets active 1h ago coverage 37d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 36d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (75 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$23,205 (-15%) realized −$22,884 · open −$321
Gross ROI / mkt +26% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate83%368W / 73L
Whale WR95%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$341per market
Trades / day74.7pace
Fees−$201est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,731now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 37d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$318
crypto 9% +$309
other 7% −$332
world 0% +$3
finance 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (75 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)+13.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 65 -32.2% -38.7% 63% 11% -21.9%
≤30d 301 -5.5% -14.5% 78% 10% -10.5%
≤90d 441 +25.8% +13.8% 83% 15% -9.6%
all 441 +25.8% +13.8% 83% 15% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover74.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.8% 15% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here +2.9% 11% -18.2%
15% -7.0% 8% -26.1%
20% -16.1% 6% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +26% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 95% (≥$560) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +59% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$80 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

37d coverage
Net worth$1,731
Realized−$22,884
Unrealized−$321
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses368 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)95%
Est. fees paid−$201
Open positions5
Markets (closed)441 / 445
History coverage37d ⚠
Avg bet$341
Trades / day74.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 441 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mallorca Championships: Yannick Hanfmann vs Adolfo Vallejo Yannick Hanfmann 73¢ 76¢ $552 $575 +$23 (+4%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 93¢ 94¢ $512 $514 +$3 (+1%)
Will Paraguay be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 48¢ 48¢ $480 $475 −$5 (-1%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Arthur Fery Arthur Fery 71¢ 72¢ $154 $156 +$2 (+1%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? Yes 76¢ $346 $2 −$344 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Denzel Dumfries: 1+ assists Jun 20 $1,112 +$1 +0%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $466 +$34 +7%
Brian Brobbey: 1+ goals Jun 20 $103 $0 +0%
Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals Jun 20 $1,240 +$2 +0%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 20 $4,576 +$4 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: Imperial Esports vs Fluxo W7M (BO1) - South America Jun 20 $143 $0 +0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $505 +$31 +6%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $330 +$233 +71%
Overwatch: Cheeseburger vs T1 (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stage Jun 20 $12 $0 +0%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Jamie Mackenzie vs Daniel Rinco Jun 20 $161 +$26 +16%
Overwatch: ZETA DIVISION vs ZANSIDE GAMING (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 G Jun 20 $682 +$1 +0%
Overwatch: Poker Face vs SuperBad (BO3) - OCS Korea Stage 2 Group Stag Jun 20 $366 +$12 +3%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Vitality (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 19 $74 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs DarkZero Esports (BO1) - North Ameri Jun 19 $999 +$1 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: Shopify Rebellion vs For Fun Esports (BO1) - North Jun 19 $999 +$1 +0%
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs INOX Division (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Pla Jun 19 $990 +$10 +1%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Cyber Hero (BO5) - BetBoom Jun 19 $208 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Millennium Esports vs EAC Rising (BO3) - United21 Grou Jun 19 $365 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $15 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $90 $0 +0%
Valorant: Gen.G Global Academy vs So:sweet (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Jun 19 $803 +$1 +0%
Valorant: RED Canids vs la Masia (BO3) - VCL Brazil: Group B Jun 19 $55 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: For Fun Esports vs Outlast (BO1) - North America Le Jun 18 $379 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Esports (-3.5) vs Spirit Academy ( Jun 18 $89 +$1 +1%
Rainbow Six Siege: Spacestation Gaming vs Five Fears (BO1) - North Ame Jun 18 $999 +$1 +0%
Colorado Rockies vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $31 $0 +0%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 17 $50 $0 +0%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 16 $407 $0 +0%
Royan: Eliakim Coulibaly vs Felix Balshaw Jun 16 $912 +$383 +42%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Vitality (-2.5) vs FUT Esports (+2.5) Jun 16 $720 +$1 +0%
Parma: Petr Bar Biryukov vs Stefano Travaglia Jun 16 $171 +$35 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 22? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on May 21? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 21? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90,000 on May 19? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on May 19? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $90,000 on May 21? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 22? Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82,000 and $84,000 on May 25? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $72,000 on May 21? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 28? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 27? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: G2 Esports vs Shifters (BO1) - Europe MENA League S Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Libema Open, Qualification: Mackenzie McDonald vs Niels Visker Jun 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Chisinau: Radu Albot vs Timofey Skatov Jun 16 $168 −$168 -100%
Cattolica: Miguel Tobon vs Alexander Vasilev Jun 16 $218 −$218 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Coleman Wong vs Zdenek Kolar Jun 16 $507 −$507 -100%
Vicenza: Marco Cecchinato vs Yu-Hsiou Hsu Jun 16 $815 −$815 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Thanasi Kokkinakis vs Terence Atmane Jun 16 $720 −$720 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $417 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $29 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $51 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $480 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $25 1h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $580 1h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $524 1h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $71 1h
Cody Gakpo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $28 1h
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 100¢ $88 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,731.34 · official $1,731.34 (match) · 3500 history records