Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:57:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
57 0x57cc…cf38 crypto 222 markets active 2h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$469 (-16%) realized −$469 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate36%79W / 139L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$722
7 days−$568
14 days−$579
30 days−$579
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$321
other 16% −$117
sports 15% −$123
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-3.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 -16.5% -24.5% 32% 31% -47.7%
≤30d 124 -16.4% -24.4% 31% 31% -43.9%
≤90d 206 -1.9% -11.3% 33% 32% -28.5%
all 218 +6.4% -3.7% 36% 35% -27.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.7% 35% -27.2%
10% -12.9% 32% -34.2%
15% -21.3% 31% -40.5%
20% -29.1% 29% -46.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +48% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$11 · ×1.1 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$469
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses79 / 139
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)218 / 222
History coverage93d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 218 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $6 +$13 +211%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $31 +$43 +140%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 +$12 +114%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 20 $18 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$2 -48%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 0 Qatar? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 20 $13 −$3 -25%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Croatia leading at halftime? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Haiti leading at halftime? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 20 $18 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 20 $13 −$13 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 2 Senegal? Jun 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 20 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL 91¢ $19 7h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) SELL Japan 98¢ $73 7h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $22 7h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY 28¢ $6 12h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 12h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 38¢ $10 12h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 40¢ $31 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $6 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $10 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $13 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $12 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $6 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $6 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $6 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $34 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $6 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Down 83¢ $29 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $21 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $21 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $10 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $2 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 14¢ $2 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.79 · official $24.79 (match) · 583 history records